Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG preview
Atletico Torque faces Atletico-MG with a 49% chance of winning compared to 25% for Atletico-MG, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Atletico Torque's expected goals of 1.75 against Atletico-MG's 1.19.
Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 56%. However, Atletico Torque's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Atletico-MG, on the other hand, has shown better form with three wins in their last six, suggesting they could challenge the predictions.
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Torque | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.21.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Atletico Torque / Atletico-MG)
- 1.21 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Atletico Torque / Atletico-MG)
- 0.97 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Torque goals. Columns: Atletico-MG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Atletico-MG | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Torque or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico-MG) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Torque win by 2+ | 26% | 3.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG recent form
Atletico Torque
2W 1D 3L
Atletico-MG
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Torque at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Torque at home only, Atletico-MG away only.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
- Atletico Torque, previous: Albion FC v Atletico Torque analysis
- Atletico-MG, previous: Atletico-MG v Coritiba analysis