Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque preview

Atletico-MG faces Atletico Torque with a 52% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and Atletico Torque at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with our model's expected goals of 1.79 for Atletico-MG and 1.13 for Atletico Torque.

There is a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, Atletico-MG's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins and a loss in their last five matches, while Atletico Torque has also struggled, winning only twice in their last five. This could impact the outcome and the likelihood of goals.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atletico-MG	Draw	Atletico Torque
Model	48%	26%	26%
Market	66%	22%	12%
Published	62%	23%	15%
Edge	-18%	+4%	+14%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.21.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico-MG, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 1.43Now 1.42 -0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Atletico-MG	1.43	1.42	-0.01
Draw	4.20	4.20	+0.00
Atletico Torque	7.60	8.00	+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Atletico-MG

1.21Atletico Torque

Total expected goals: 2.92
Attack rating (Atletico-MG / Atletico Torque): 1.27 / 1.21
Defence rating (Atletico-MG / Atletico Torque): 1.04 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 5.4% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 1 8.1% 12.2% 6.7% 2.7% 1.1% 2 7.9% 9.6% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 4.5% 5.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 2.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Atletico-MG goals. Columns: Atletico Torque goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atletico-MG	62%	1.62
	Draw	23%	4.30
	Atletico Torque	15%	6.57
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.79
	Under 2.5	44%	2.27
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.71
	No	41%	2.42
Double chance	1X (Atletico-MG or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Atletico Torque)	38%	2.60
Handicap -1	Atletico-MG win by 2+	27%	3.75
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque recent form

Atletico-MG 3W 2D 1L

Atletico Torque 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico-MG at home

Record (W-D-L): 4-1-0
Win rate: 80%
Goals for / match: 1.80
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 3 of 5

They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Atletico Torque away

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-2
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.20
Goals against / match: 1.40
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico-MG at home only, Atletico Torque away only.

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama — match page 2026-10-14

Before and after this match

Atletico-MG, previous: Atletico-MG v Santos analysis
Atletico Torque, previous: Atletico Torque v Danubio analysis

Prediction snapshot Atletico-MG to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Atletico-MG