Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama preview
Boca Juniors face Vasco DA Gama with 1X2 probabilities of 47% for Boca, 29% for a draw, and 23% for Vasco. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 12%. Boca Juniors have an expected goals figure of 1.43, while Vasco's is lower at 0.93.
However, there are factors that could influence the outcome. Both teams to score stands at 47%, indicating that while Boca is favoured, Vasco could find the net. Additionally, Boca's recent form shows 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Vasco has 4 wins in the same period. This recent performance could impact the match dynamics.
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama: model vs market
| Source | Boca Juniors | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Published | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Edge | -5% | -2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.13.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Boca Juniors / Vasco DA Gama)
- 1.52 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Boca Juniors / Vasco DA Gama)
- 0.81 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Boca Juniors goals. Columns: Vasco DA Gama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Boca Juniors or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Vasco DA Gama) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win by 2+ | 23% | 4.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama recent form
Boca Juniors
4W 2D 0L
Vasco DA Gama
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Boca Juniors at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Vasco DA Gama away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Boca Juniors at home only, Vasco DA Gama away only.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
- Boca Juniors, previous: Instituto Cordoba – Boca Juniors, 2026-10-09
- Vasco DA Gama, previous: Vasco DA Gama vs Remo: odds and pick