Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors

· Estadio Presidente Peron, Avellaneda· Referee Leandro Rey Hilfer

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Boca Juniors to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Instituto CordobaDrawBoca Juniors

Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInstituto CordobaDrawBoca Juniors
Model37%28%34%
Market32%32%36%
Published33%31%35%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Boca Juniors, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 2.74Now 2.62 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Instituto Cordoba2.802.95+0.15
Draw2.902.90+0.00
Boca Juniors2.742.62-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Instituto Cordoba and Boca Juniors expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Instituto Cordoba
1.30Boca Juniors
Total expected goals
2.68
Attack rating (Instituto Cordoba / Boca Juniors)
1.58 / 1.69
Defence rating (Instituto Cordoba / Boca Juniors)
0.87 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 7.7% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 1 8.2% 13.5% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2 6.5% 8.5% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.4% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Instituto Cordoba goals. Columns: Boca Juniors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Instituto Cordoba33%3.01
Draw31%3.19
Boca Juniors35%2.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.00
Under 2.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Instituto Cordoba or draw)65%1.55
12 (either side)69%1.46
X2 (draw or Boca Juniors)67%1.50
Handicap -1Boca Juniors win by 2+16%6.39
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Instituto Cordoba and Boca Juniors recent form

Instituto Cordoba 4W 1D 1L
Boca Juniors 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Instituto Cordoba at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-1-3
Win rate
69%
Goals for / match
1.54
Goals against / match
0.85
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boca Juniors away

Record (W-D-L)
6-5-3
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.07
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Instituto Cordoba at home only, Boca Juniors away only.

Expected lineups

Instituto Cordoba lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 29 M. Ledesma
  2. 6 F. Alarcón
  3. 26 L. Mosevich
  4. 30 J. Galván
  5. 3 D. Sosa
  6. 15 M. Gallardo
  7. 55 G. Abregú
  8. 44 G. Cerato
  9. 10 A. Luna
  10. 21 J. Lázaro
  11. 17 M. Tissera

Bench: H. De La Fuente, N. Guerra, J. Acevedo, F. Suárez, M. Fonseca, I. Méndez, L. Sanseviero, J. Córdoba, A. Massaccesi, J. Meli, A. Bravo, E. Sittaro

Boca Juniors lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Á. Montero
  2. 3 L. Blanco
  3. 26 Marco Pellegrino
  4. 2 L. Di Lollo
  5. 27 M. Braida
  6. 18 M. Delgado
  7. 15 W. Alarcón
  8. 22 S. Villa
  9. 7 C. Palacios
  10. 19 L. Flores
  11. 13 E. Valencia

Bench: N. Figal, L. Paredes, R. Battaglia, M. Giménez, Á. Romero, L. Brey, M. Merentiel, D. Gorosito, S. Ascacíbar, A. Costa, F. Herrera

Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Instituto Cordoba 1 · draws 1 · Boca Juniors 1.

Instituto CordobaDrawsBoca Juniors
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Boca Juniors2-0Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-07-28Instituto Cordoba0-0Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2023-03-19Boca Juniors2-3Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match