Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia preview
Union Santa Fe hosts Defensa Y Justicia with a 42% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with a high expectation for goals, as 69% of the data suggests Over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is also favored at 70%.
However, recent form shows Union Santa Fe has lost their last three matches, while Defensa Y Justicia has won four of their last six. This could impact the outcome, as Union Santa Fe's struggles may allow Defensa Y Justicia to capitalize. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia: model vs market
| Source | Union Santa Fe | Draw | Defensa Y Justicia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 24% | 42% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | -10% | -5% | +15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Union Santa Fe, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 2.23 | 2.10 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.20 | +0.12 |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 3.32 | 3.50 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Union Santa Fe / Defensa Y Justicia)
- 1.28 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Union Santa Fe / Defensa Y Justicia)
- 1.57 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union Santa Fe goals. Columns: Defensa Y Justicia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union Santa Fe or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Defensa Y Justicia) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union Santa Fe win by 2+ | 18% | 5.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia recent form
Union Santa Fe
3W 0D 3L
Defensa Y Justicia
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensa Y Justicia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Union Santa Fe at home only, Defensa Y Justicia away only.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Union Santa Fe 1 · draws 1 · Defensa Y Justicia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Defensa Y Justicia | 2-0 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-10-21 | Union Santa Fe | 3-0 | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-04-14 | Defensa Y Justicia | 0-0 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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