Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia

· Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz· Referee Dario Herrera

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Union Santa Fe to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Union Santa FeDrawDefensa Y Justicia

Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUnion Santa FeDrawDefensa Y Justicia
Model35%24%42%
Market42%30%28%
Published40%28%31%
Edge-2%-1%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Union Santa Fe, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 2.23Now 2.21 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Union Santa Fe2.232.21-0.02
Draw3.083.15+0.07
Defensa Y Justicia3.323.35+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Union Santa Fe
1.86Defensa Y Justicia
Total expected goals
3.54
Attack rating (Union Santa Fe / Defensa Y Justicia)
1.27 / 1.33
Defence rating (Union Santa Fe / Defensa Y Justicia)
1.56 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 4.5% 5.0% 3.1% 2.2% 1 4.0% 10.0% 8.4% 5.2% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.6% 7.1% 4.4% 3.1% 3 2.3% 4.3% 4.0% 2.5% 1.7% 4+ 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1%

Rows: Union Santa Fe goals. Columns: Defensa Y Justicia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Union Santa Fe40%2.48
Draw28%3.54
Defensa Y Justicia31%3.19
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.46
Under 2.531%3.19
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.44
No30%3.29
Double chance1X (Union Santa Fe or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Defensa Y Justicia)60%1.68
Handicap -1Union Santa Fe win by 2+18%5.67
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia recent form

Union Santa Fe 3W 0D 3L
Defensa Y Justicia 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Union Santa Fe at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-3
Win rate
46%
Goals for / match
1.69
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Defensa Y Justicia away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-5
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.23
Goals against / match
1.46
Clean sheets
3 of 13
  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Union Santa Fe at home only, Defensa Y Justicia away only.

Expected lineups

Union Santa Fe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 M. Mansilla
  2. 18 L. Ayala
  3. 26 J. Ludueña
  4. 4 M. Rocha
  5. 27 T. Rubio
  6. 8 E. Giaccone
  7. 17 J. Mosqueira
  8. 11 M. Luna Diale
  9. 10 V. Malcorra
  10. 43 E. Ramírez
  11. 25 C. Tarragona

Bench: B. Pittón, J. Pintado, M. Estigarribia, J. Palacios, B. Cuello, A. Solari, M. Aguirre, I. Isla, M. Aimar, V. J. Cerrudo, L. Meuli

Defensa Y Justicia lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Borgogno
  2. 30 D. Domínguez
  3. 21 D. Martínez
  4. 29 D. Fernández
  5. 28 V. Loza
  6. 8 C. Pérez
  7. 15 S. Sosa
  8. 24 J. Gutiérrez
  9. 19 D. Barbona
  10. 26 J. Lucco
  11. 9 L. Fernández

Bench: J. López, E. Burdin, Tiziano Perrota, A. Portillo, A. Hausch, N. Palavecino, M. Porcel, D. Blanco, L. Amadé

Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Union Santa Fe 2 · draws 3 · Defensa Y Justicia 5.

Union Santa FeDrawsDefensa Y Justicia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Defensa Y Justicia2-0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-10-21Union Santa Fe3-0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-04-14Defensa Y Justicia0-0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-12-15Defensa Y Justicia0-0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-03-10Defensa Y Justicia2-1Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-10-24Union Santa Fe0-0Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-07-28Union Santa Fe2-0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-10-14Defensa Y Justicia1-0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-05-02Union Santa Fe1-2Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-11-18Union Santa Fe2-3Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match