Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe preview
Deportivo Riestra faces Union Santa Fe with 40% chances of winning compared to 28% for Union Santa Fe. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% probability. Deportivo Riestra has struggled recently, recording L-D-D-L-D-D, while Union Santa Fe shows some improvement with L-L-L-L-W-W.
The expected goals are 1.32 for Deportivo Riestra and 1.03 for Union Santa Fe. There is a 42% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty. Factors such as defensive errors or unexpected performances could impact these predictions.
Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Riestra | Draw | Union Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 33% | 27% |
| Published | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| Edge | +1% | -2% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Riestra, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 2.42 | 2.30 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 2.80 | 2.88 | +0.08 |
| Union Santa Fe | 3.25 | 3.51 | +0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Deportivo Riestra / Union Santa Fe)
- 0.72 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Deportivo Riestra / Union Santa Fe)
- 1.01 / 1.60
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Riestra goals. Columns: Union Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Riestra | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Union Santa Fe | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Riestra or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Union Santa Fe) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Riestra win by 2+ | 20% | 5.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe recent form
Deportivo Riestra
0W 4D 2L
Union Santa Fe
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Riestra at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-4
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 27 matches.
Union Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Riestra at home only, Union Santa Fe away only.
Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Deportivo Riestra 0 · draws 0 · Union Santa Fe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Union Santa Fe | 2-0 | Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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Before and after this match
- Deportivo Riestra, previous: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra: odds and pick
- Union Santa Fe, previous: Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia: odds and pick