Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo preview
In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Estudiantes L.P. has a 48% chance to win against San Lorenzo, who has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% probability. Estudiantes L.P. has an expected goals figure of 1.50, while San Lorenzo sits at 0.53.
Both teams to score is at 33%, indicating a low likelihood of goals from both sides. Recent form shows Estudiantes L.P. with two wins in their last three matches, while San Lorenzo has struggled with two losses in their last three. A draw is also a possibility at 31%, which could affect the outcome if Estudiantes L.P. fails to convert their chances.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo: model vs market
| Source | Estudiantes L.P. | Draw | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 28% | 12% |
| Market | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| Published | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| Edge | +16% | -4% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.53.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Estudiantes L.P. below the model: +16.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estudiantes L.P., 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. | 2.02 | 2.12 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 2.99 | 2.94 | -0.04 |
| San Lorenzo | 4.15 | 3.80 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (Estudiantes L.P. / San Lorenzo)
- 1.29 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Estudiantes L.P. / San Lorenzo)
- 0.96 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estudiantes L.P. goals. Columns: San Lorenzo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| San Lorenzo | 21% | 4.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.05 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estudiantes L.P. or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or San Lorenzo) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estudiantes L.P. win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo recent form
Estudiantes L.P.
3W 1D 2L
San Lorenzo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estudiantes L.P. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-4
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 0.53
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Lorenzo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-5
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estudiantes L.P. at home only, San Lorenzo away only.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Estudiantes L.P. 0 · draws 0 · San Lorenzo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | San Lorenzo | 1-0 | Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Platense vs Lanus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central 2026-10-17
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page 2026-10-18
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Aldosivi 2026-10-18
- Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate 2026-10-18
- Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Estudiantes L.P., previous: Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo prediction
- Estudiantes L.P., next: Flamengo – Estudiantes L.P., 2026-10-23
- San Lorenzo, previous: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra: odds and pick