Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra

· Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires· Referee Bruno Amiconi

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was The draw

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 0

25% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
San LorenzoDrawDeportivo Riestra

San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSan LorenzoDrawDeportivo Riestra
Model26%40%34%
Market38%34%28%
Published35%35%30%
Edge-3%+2%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Draw, 32 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 2.82Now 2.77 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
San Lorenzo2.212.46+0.25
Draw2.822.77-0.04
Deportivo Riestra3.753.30-0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

San Lorenzo and Deportivo Riestra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.67San Lorenzo
0.79Deportivo Riestra
Total expected goals
1.45
Attack rating (San Lorenzo / Deportivo Riestra)
0.57 / 0.79
Defence rating (San Lorenzo / Deportivo Riestra)
1.11 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 24.6% 17.2% 7.3% 1.9% 0.4% 1 14.3% 13.5% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2 5.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 3 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: San Lorenzo goals. Columns: Deportivo Riestra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 75%
Over 1.5 44%
Over 2.5 18%
Over 3.5 6%
Both teams to score
28%
No goals (0–0)
25%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2San Lorenzo35%2.84
Draw35%2.84
Deportivo Riestra30%3.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.518%5.56
Under 2.582%1.22
Both teams to scoreYes28%3.60
No72%1.38
Double chance1X (San Lorenzo or draw)70%1.42
12 (either side)65%1.54
X2 (draw or Deportivo Riestra)65%1.54
Handicap -1San Lorenzo win by 2+8%12.99
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

San Lorenzo and Deportivo Riestra recent form

San Lorenzo 1W 2D 3L
Deportivo Riestra 0W 5D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

San Lorenzo at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-2-5
Win rate
46%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.15
Clean sheets
7 of 13
  • They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Riestra away

Record (W-D-L)
0-6-7
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.23
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 27 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: San Lorenzo at home only, Deportivo Riestra away only.

Expected lineups

San Lorenzo lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 25 J. Devecchi
  2. 3 T. Rodríguez
  3. 19 E. Amor
  4. 2 D. Arboleda
  5. 35 A. Cordoba
  6. 38 F. Farías
  7. 62 G. Alassia
  8. 10 Facundo Gulli
  9. 24 N. Tripichio
  10. 29 R. Auzmendi
  11. 9 A. Cuello

Bench: M. de Ritis, Juan Rattalino, A. Ladstatter, F. Altamirano, G. del Prete, M. Río, E. Herrera, Daniel Herrera, F. Lorenzón

Deportivo Riestra lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 I. Arce
  2. 5 P. Ramírez
  3. 19 J. Randazzo
  4. 22 C. Paz
  5. 15 N. Sansotre
  6. 36 M. Bracamonte
  7. 14 P. Monje
  8. 8 M. Céliz
  9. 10 B. Sánchez
  10. 7 Antony Daniel Alonso Espinoza
  11. 11 A. Díaz

Bench: C. Quintana, I. Gariglio, N. Benegas, R. Gallo, N. Watson, Á. Almada, T. Lauro, T. González, M. Arzamendia, J. Goitía, M. Graneros, G. Obredor

San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: San Lorenzo 1 · draws 3 · Deportivo Riestra 1.

San LorenzoDrawsDeportivo Riestra
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-17San Lorenzo1-1Deportivo RiestraCopa Argentina
2026-03-25Deportivo Riestra1-1San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-10-31San Lorenzo1-0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-04-20Deportivo Riestra0-0San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-05-12Deportivo Riestra1-0San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match