San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra: model vs market
| Source | San Lorenzo | Draw | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 40% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Published | 38% | 35% | 27% |
| Edge | -15% | +6% | +8% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Lorenzo, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 2.21 | 2.28 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 2.82 | 2.80 | -0.02 |
| Deportivo Riestra | 3.75 | 3.70 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Lorenzo and Deportivo Riestra expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.46
- Attack rating (San Lorenzo / Deportivo Riestra)
- 0.58 / 0.79
- Defence rating (San Lorenzo / Deportivo Riestra)
- 1.12 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Lorenzo goals. Columns: Deportivo Riestra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 28%
- No goals (0–0)
- 25%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Lorenzo | 38% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Deportivo Riestra | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18% | 5.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28% | 3.60 |
| No | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Lorenzo or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Riestra) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Lorenzo win by 2+ | 8% | 12.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Lorenzo and Deportivo Riestra recent form
San Lorenzo
1W 2D 3L
Deportivo Riestra
0W 5D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Lorenzo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-5
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Riestra away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-6-7
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 26 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Lorenzo at home only, Deportivo Riestra away only.
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: San Lorenzo 1 · draws 3 · Deportivo Riestra 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | San Lorenzo | 1-1 | Deportivo Riestra | Copa Argentina |
| 2026-03-25 | Deportivo Riestra | 1-1 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-10-31 | San Lorenzo | 1-0 | Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-04-20 | Deportivo Riestra | 0-0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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