Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin

· Estadio Jose Maria Minella, Mar del Plata· Referee Luis Lobo Medina

Full time1 – 3

Alin prediction was Aldosivi to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AldosiviDrawSarmiento Junin

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAldosiviDrawSarmiento Junin
Model43%24%33%
Market37%30%33%
Published38%29%33%
Edge+2%-2%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aldosivi, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-02.

Opened 2.80Now 2.55 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aldosivi2.802.55-0.25
Draw3.013.09+0.08
Sarmiento Junin2.622.88+0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Aldosivi
1.62Sarmiento Junin
Total expected goals
3.48
Attack rating (Aldosivi / Sarmiento Junin)
1.10 / 1.29
Defence rating (Aldosivi / Sarmiento Junin)
1.42 / 1.47

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 2.2% 1.3% 1 4.8% 10.2% 7.5% 4.0% 2.3% 2 5.3% 8.6% 7.0% 3.8% 2.2% 3 3.3% 5.4% 4.3% 2.3% 1.4% 4+ 2.4% 3.8% 3.1% 1.7% 1.0%

Rows: Aldosivi goals. Columns: Sarmiento Junin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aldosivi38%2.60
Draw29%3.47
Sarmiento Junin33%3.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.08
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.46
No31%3.19
Double chance1X (Aldosivi or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Sarmiento Junin)62%1.62
Handicap -1Aldosivi win by 2+24%4.18
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin recent form

Aldosivi 2W 0D 4L
Sarmiento Junin 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aldosivi at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-8-3
Win rate
15%
Goals for / match
0.69
Goals against / match
0.85
Clean sheets
6 of 13
  • They have won 2 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.

Sarmiento Junin away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-10
Win rate
23%
Goals for / match
0.92
Goals against / match
1.92
Clean sheets
1 of 13
  • They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Aldosivi at home only, Sarmiento Junin away only.

Expected lineups

Aldosivi lineup · 4-4-1-1

  1. 23 I. Chicco
  2. 13 B. Cufré
  3. 33 N. Zalazar
  4. 2 L. Sigali
  5. 4 R. González
  6. 10 N. Gaitán
  7. 19 L. Castro
  8. 5 N. Linares
  9. 8 M. García
  10. 11 B. Palavecino
  11. 9 N. Cordero

Bench: N. Guzmán, F. Perruzzi, B. Dadín, F. Laurelli, M. Godoy, F. Anso, N. Breitenbruch, T. Fernández, S. Moya, L. Chávez

Sarmiento Junin lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 12 T. Ayala
  2. 3 L. Suárez
  3. 2 J. Insaurralde
  4. 44 R. Orihuela
  5. 20 U. Giménez
  6. 23 E. Giménez
  7. 16 Mauricio Leonel Martínez
  8. 15 C. Zabala
  9. 10 Jhon Rentería
  10. 27 J. Marabel
  11. 21 J. Mavilla

Bench: I. Arboleda, M. García, G. Arturia, P. Magnín, S. Salle, G. González, A. Nadruz, J. Contrera, J. Herrera, T. Santamaría, G. Díaz, N. Pasquini

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aldosivi 2 · draws 3 · Sarmiento Junin 5.

AldosiviDrawsSarmiento Junin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Sarmiento Junin2-0AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-09-14Sarmiento Junin2-0AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-03-01Aldosivi2-2Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-09-03Aldosivi1-2Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-10-09Sarmiento Junin3-0AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
2018-03-24Sarmiento Junin1-0AldosiviPrimera Nacional
2016-12-17Sarmiento Junin0-2AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
2015-03-02Sarmiento Junin2-2AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
2014-05-03Sarmiento Junin0-1AldosiviPrimera Nacional
2013-11-03Aldosivi0-0Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match