Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin preview
Aldosivi faces Sarmiento Junin with a 39% chance of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. Aldosivi's expected goals stand at 1.86, while Sarmiento Junin's is slightly lower at 1.62.
Recent form shows Aldosivi with two wins in their last six matches, while Sarmiento Junin has three wins in their last six. The head-to-head record favors Sarmiento Junin, who has five wins in the last ten encounters. This could impact the outcome, despite Aldosivi's home advantage. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin: model vs market
| Source | Aldosivi | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market | 37% | 31% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | +6% | -7% | +2% |
- The market prices Aldosivi below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aldosivi, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi | 2.80 | 2.54 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.01 | 3.00 | -0.01 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 2.62 | 3.00 | +0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Aldosivi / Sarmiento Junin)
- 1.10 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Aldosivi / Sarmiento Junin)
- 1.42 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aldosivi goals. Columns: Sarmiento Junin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aldosivi | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Sarmiento Junin | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aldosivi or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Sarmiento Junin) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aldosivi win by 2+ | 24% | 4.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin recent form
Aldosivi
2W 0D 4L
Sarmiento Junin
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aldosivi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-3
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 2 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
Sarmiento Junin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-10
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Aldosivi at home only, Sarmiento Junin away only.
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aldosivi 2 · draws 3 · Sarmiento Junin 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Sarmiento Junin | 2-0 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-09-14 | Sarmiento Junin | 2-0 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-03-01 | Aldosivi | 2-2 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-09-03 | Aldosivi | 1-2 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-10-09 | Sarmiento Junin | 3-0 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2018-03-24 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-0 | Aldosivi | Primera Nacional |
| 2016-12-17 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-2 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2015-03-02 | Sarmiento Junin | 2-2 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2014-05-03 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-1 | Aldosivi | Primera Nacional |
| 2013-11-03 | Aldosivi | 0-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Primera Nacional |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Gimnasia L.P. v Atletico Tucuman — match page 2026-10-09
- Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Barracas Central vs Huracan 2026-10-10
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Estudiantes L.P. — match page 2026-10-10
- Tigre v Banfield — match page 2026-10-10
- River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra 2026-10-11