Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman preview
Gimnasia L.P. faces Atletico Tucuman with a 45% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The expected goals suggest a close match, with Gimnasia L.P. at 1.40 and Atletico Tucuman at 1.21. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the market's estimation of a low-scoring game, but the possibility of Over 2.5 goals stands at 49%.
Both teams to score has a 54% probability, indicating that there is a reasonable chance for both sides to find the net. Gimnasia L.P. has shown mixed recent form, while Atletico Tucuman has struggled, winning just one of their last six matches. This could affect the outcome, making it less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia L.P. | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 24% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Edge | -6% | -1% | +7% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia L.P., 14 snapshots since 2026-09-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia L.P. | 2.21 | 2.04 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.01 | 3.20 | +0.19 |
| Atletico Tucuman | 3.44 | 3.87 | +0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Atletico Tucuman)
- 1.28 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Atletico Tucuman)
- 1.25 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia L.P. goals. Columns: Atletico Tucuman goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Atletico Tucuman | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia L.P. or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Tucuman) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia L.P. win by 2+ | 20% | 5.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman recent form
Gimnasia L.P.
2W 3D 1L
Atletico Tucuman
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia L.P. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-4
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Tucuman away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-8
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia L.P. at home only, Atletico Tucuman away only.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gimnasia L.P. 2 · draws 0 · Atletico Tucuman 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Atletico Tucuman | 1-0 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-09-01 | Gimnasia L.P. | 1-0 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-02-24 | Atletico Tucuman | 0-1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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