Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman

· Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata· Referee Pablo Dovalo

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Gimnasia L.P. to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Gimnasia L.P.DrawAtletico Tucuman

Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGimnasia L.P.DrawAtletico Tucuman
Model40%29%31%
Market49%29%22%
Published47%29%24%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia L.P., 20 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 2.21Now 1.91 -0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gimnasia L.P.2.211.91-0.30
Draw3.013.26+0.25
Atletico Tucuman3.444.28+0.84

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Gimnasia L.P.
1.21Atletico Tucuman
Total expected goals
2.61
Attack rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Atletico Tucuman)
1.28 / 1.09
Defence rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Atletico Tucuman)
1.25 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 7.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 1 9.0% 13.7% 7.5% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.2% 8.7% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 3 3.4% 4.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Gimnasia L.P. goals. Columns: Atletico Tucuman goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gimnasia L.P.47%2.13
Draw29%3.48
Atletico Tucuman24%4.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.06
Under 2.551%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.85
No46%2.18
Double chance1X (Gimnasia L.P. or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Atletico Tucuman)53%1.89
Handicap -1Gimnasia L.P. win by 2+19%5.13
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman recent form

Gimnasia L.P. 2W 3D 1L
Atletico Tucuman 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gimnasia L.P. at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-4
Win rate
54%
Goals for / match
1.54
Goals against / match
1.23
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Tucuman away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-8
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
0.92
Goals against / match
1.23
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia L.P. at home only, Atletico Tucuman away only.

Expected lineups

Gimnasia L.P. lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 23 N. Insfrán
  2. 22 M. Melluso
  3. 21 E. Martínez
  4. 13 G. Conti
  5. 31 B. Barros Schelotto
  6. 19 A. Colazo
  7. 5 I. Miramón
  8. 17 L. Janson
  9. 8 I. Fernández
  10. 9 M. Zalazar
  11. 29 A. Auzmendi

Bench: R. Giampaoli, M. Panaro, N. Schelotto, H. Castillo, A. Max, M. Seoane, J. Pérez, A. Steimbach, F. Torres, M. Torres, J. Cortazzo, M. Ojeda

Atletico Tucuman lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 L. Ingolotti
  2. 21 I. Galván
  3. 36 Luciano Vallejo
  4. 26 C. Ferreira
  5. 24 L. Di Plácido
  6. 5 J. Fernández
  7. 23 N. Laméndola
  8. 10 F. Nicola
  9. 31 L. Godoy
  10. 11 R. Tesuri
  11. 18 R. Ruíz Rodríguez

Bench: M. Villa, G. Ferrari, E. Ham, A. Canelo, J. Rodríguez, F. Pimienta, T. Durso, R. Granillo, G. Compagnucci, M. Brondo, J. Infante

Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Gimnasia L.P. 5 · draws 0 · Atletico Tucuman 5.

Gimnasia L.P.DrawsAtletico Tucuman
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Atletico Tucuman1-0Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina
2025-09-01Gimnasia L.P.1-0Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-02-24Atletico Tucuman0-1Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina
2024-11-24Gimnasia L.P.1-0Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-05-23Atletico Tucuman1-2Gimnasia L.P.Copa Argentina
2024-04-07Atletico Tucuman3-2Gimnasia L.P.Copa de la Liga Profesional
2023-11-11Gimnasia L.P.1-2Atletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-07-12Atletico Tucuman2-0Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina
2022-07-10Atletico Tucuman2-0Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina
2022-04-08Atletico Tucuman1-2Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match