Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

· El Monumental, Buenos Aires· Referee Nazareno Arasa

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was River Plate to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
River PlateDrawEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto

River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRiver PlateDrawEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Model68%21%11%
Market81%15%5%
Published78%16%6%
Edge-3%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto odds movement

Median bookmaker price on River Plate, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.20Now 1.17 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
River Plate1.201.17-0.03
Draw5.756.40+0.65
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto17.0020.00+3.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

River Plate and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09River Plate
0.72Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (River Plate / Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto)
1.33 / 0.68
Defence rating (River Plate / Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto)
1.18 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 3.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1 11.6% 9.9% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.1% 9.5% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 3 9.2% 6.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 7.8% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: River Plate goals. Columns: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2River Plate78%1.29
Draw16%6.15
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto6%16.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.85
Double chance1X (River Plate or draw)94%1.07
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto)22%4.45
Handicap -1River Plate win by 2+45%2.24
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

River Plate and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto recent form

River Plate 3W 2D 1L
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

River Plate at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-2-7
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
1.06
Clean sheets
6 of 18
  • They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-11
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.38
Goals against / match
1.85
Clean sheets
1 of 13
  • They have won 2 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 27 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: River Plate at home only, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away only.

Expected lineups

River Plate lineup · 4-3-2-1

  1. 41 S. Beltrán
  2. 21 M. Acuña
  3. 30 N. Otamendi
  4. 28 L. Martínez
  5. 29 G. Montiel
  6. 26 T. Galván
  7. 15 F. Vera
  8. 50 T. Andrada
  9. 25 L. Pereyra
  10. 10 Á. Correa
  11. 9 S. Driussi

Bench: T. Palacio, A. Moreno, M. Arambarri, L. Rivero, L. Beltrán, R. Borré, G. González, T. Almada, J. Meza, F. González, E. Centurión, L. Silva

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 23 F. Rodríguez
  2. 29 A. Quiroga
  3. 30 S. Ojeda
  4. 2 G. Maffini
  5. 6 J. Antonini
  6. 17 G. Alanís
  7. 5 A. Cabrera
  8. 10 T. González
  9. 22 M. Valiente
  10. 77 I. Hesar

Bench: S. Rosané, J. Ferreira, M. Garnerone, G. Gonzalez, Y. Moreno, J. Rivero, F. Cobos, M. Valenti, M. Bajamich, J. Chala

River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: River Plate 1 · draws 0 · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.

River PlateDrawsEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0-2River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match