River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: model vs market
| Source | River Plate | Draw | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 21% | 11% |
| Market | 78% | 16% | 5% |
| Published | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Edge | -10% | +5% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on River Plate, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 1.20 | 1.19 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.75 | 5.76 | +0.01 |
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 17.00 | 17.50 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
River Plate and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (River Plate / Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto)
- 1.34 / 0.69
- Defence rating (River Plate / Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto)
- 1.18 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: River Plate goals. Columns: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | River Plate | 76% | 1.32 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.77 | |
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 7% | 15.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (River Plate or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto) | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | River Plate win by 2+ | 45% | 2.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
River Plate and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto recent form
River Plate
3W 2D 1L
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
River Plate at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-7
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-11
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 2 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 26 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: River Plate at home only, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away only.
River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: River Plate 1 · draws 0 · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 0-2 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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