Tigre vs Banfield: model vs market
| Source | Tigre | Draw | Banfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Published | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| Edge | -11% | -1% | +12% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tigre vs Banfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tigre, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre | 1.76 | 1.74 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.27 | -0.01 |
| Banfield | 5.15 | 5.20 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tigre and Banfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Tigre / Banfield)
- 0.95 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Tigre / Banfield)
- 1.19 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tigre vs Banfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tigre goals. Columns: Banfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tigre vs Banfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tigre vs Banfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigre | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Banfield | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tigre or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Banfield) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tigre win by 2+ | 22% | 4.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tigre and Banfield recent form
Tigre
1W 1D 4L
Banfield
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tigre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-2
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 0.77
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Banfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-9
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Tigre at home only, Banfield away only.
Tigre vs Banfield head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Tigre 2 · draws 0 · Banfield 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Banfield | 1-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-08-29 | Banfield | 1-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-06-26 | Tigre | 2-0 | Banfield | Copa Argentina |
| 2025-02-25 | Tigre | 1-0 | Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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