Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

Tigre vs Banfield

· Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna, Buenos Aires· Referee Pablo Echavarria

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Tigre to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TigreDrawBanfield

Tigre vs Banfield: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTigreDrawBanfield
Model43%28%30%
Market54%28%18%
Published51%28%21%
Edge-3%0%+3%
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tigre vs Banfield odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tigre, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.76Now 1.73 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Tigre1.761.73-0.03
Draw3.283.40+0.12
Banfield5.155.20+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tigre and Banfield expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Tigre
1.23Banfield
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (Tigre / Banfield)
0.95 / 1.15
Defence rating (Tigre / Banfield)
1.19 / 1.38

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tigre vs Banfield score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 6.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.6% 13.2% 7.4% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.4% 9.1% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 3 3.7% 4.5% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Tigre goals. Columns: Banfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tigre vs Banfield goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tigre vs Banfield

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tigre51%1.95
Draw28%3.62
Banfield21%4.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.94
Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.28
Double chance1X (Tigre or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Banfield)49%2.06
Handicap -1Tigre win by 2+22%4.62
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tigre and Banfield recent form

Tigre 1W 1D 4L
Banfield 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tigre at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-6-2
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.08
Goals against / match
0.77
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Banfield away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-9
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
0.86
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Tigre at home only, Banfield away only.

Expected lineups

Tigre lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 12 F. Zenobio
  2. 24 F. Álvarez
  3. 20 A. Barrionuevo
  4. 2 J. Laso
  5. 4 V. Moreno
  6. 22 S. López
  7. 5 B. Leyes
  8. 27 S. González
  9. 10 J. Saralegui
  10. 29 I. Russo
  11. 30 J. Dómina

Bench: M. Garay, T. Serrago, G. Soto, M. Fernández, A. Oviedo, G. Requena, Ian Martin Subiabre, L. Morales, J. Villalba, L. Minniti, A. Lezcano, I. Peluffo

Banfield lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 50 D. Rodríguez
  2. 27 I. Abraham
  3. 6 N. Meriano
  4. 2 S. Daniele
  5. 4 J. Alfaro
  6. 20 T. Adoryán
  7. 5 Santiago Esquivel
  8. 40 D. Zalazar
  9. 7 Lisandro Piñero
  10. 18 Federico Medina
  11. 9 A. Balboa

Bench: N. Paz, Brandon Oviedo, J. Acosta, L. Cano, L. Villegas, S. López, G. Santilli, M. Hernández, F. Anselmo, I. Pais, R. Malanca, T. Rodríguez

Tigre vs Banfield head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Tigre 3 · draws 1 · Banfield 6.

TigreDrawsBanfield
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Banfield1-0TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-08-29Banfield1-0TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-06-26Tigre2-0BanfieldCopa Argentina
2025-02-25Tigre1-0BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-11-18Banfield0-1TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
2023-07-05Tigre1-2BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-06-19Tigre0-1BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2019-02-08Tigre4-4BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2018-01-26Tigre1-2BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2017-04-29Tigre0-1BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match