Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre preview
Independ. Rivadavia faces Tigre with a 50% chance of winning compared to Tigre's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects a 10% probability. Independ. Rivadavia has an expected goals total of 1.72, while Tigre sits at 1.18.
Independ. Rivadavia's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Tigre has lost 5 in a row, with 1 draw. The model suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, if Tigre improves their performance, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre: model vs market
| Source | Independ. Rivadavia | Draw | Tigre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 29% | 22% |
| Published | 49% | 29% | 23% |
| Edge | 0% | -3% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independ. Rivadavia, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independ. Rivadavia | 1.80 | 1.92 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.17 | -0.10 |
| Tigre | 4.75 | 4.22 | -0.53 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Independ. Rivadavia and Tigre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Independ. Rivadavia / Tigre)
- 1.16 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Independ. Rivadavia / Tigre)
- 1.45 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independ. Rivadavia goals. Columns: Tigre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independ. Rivadavia | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Tigre | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independ. Rivadavia or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Tigre) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independ. Rivadavia win by 2+ | 27% | 3.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Independ. Rivadavia and Tigre recent form
Independ. Rivadavia
2W 2D 2L
Tigre
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independ. Rivadavia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-3
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-7
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Independ. Rivadavia at home only, Tigre away only.
Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Independ. Rivadavia 3 · draws 1 · Tigre 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Independ. Rivadavia | 1-0 | Tigre | Copa Argentina |
| 2026-04-02 | Tigre | 0-2 | Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-09-06 | Tigre | 1-3 | Independ. Rivadavia | Copa Argentina |
| 2025-08-22 | Tigre | 1-1 | Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-02-15 | Independ. Rivadavia | 1-4 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba — match page 2026-10-16
- Boca Juniors vs Talleres Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Banfield vs Argentinos JRS 2026-10-17
- Platense vs Lanus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central 2026-10-17
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page 2026-10-18
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Independ. Rivadavia, previous: Rosario Central v Independ. Rivadavia analysis
- Tigre, previous: Tigre – Banfield, 2026-10-10