Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia: model vs market
| Source | Rosario Central | Draw | Independ. Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Published | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosario Central, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 2.00 | 1.94 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.29 | +0.06 |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 3.91 | 4.07 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rosario Central and Independ. Rivadavia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.11
- Attack rating (Rosario Central / Independ. Rivadavia)
- 0.91 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Rosario Central / Independ. Rivadavia)
- 0.87 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rosario Central goals. Columns: Independ. Rivadavia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosario Central | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rosario Central or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Independ. Rivadavia) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosario Central win by 2+ | 16% | 6.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rosario Central and Independ. Rivadavia recent form
Rosario Central
2W 3D 1L
Independ. Rivadavia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rosario Central at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independ. Rivadavia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rosario Central at home only, Independ. Rivadavia away only.
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Rosario Central 0 · draws 0 · Independ. Rivadavia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Independ. Rivadavia | 2-0 | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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