Platense vs Argentinos JRS: model vs market
| Source | Platense | Draw | Argentinos JRS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Market | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Published | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Argentinos JRS below the model: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Platense vs Argentinos JRS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Argentinos JRS, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platense | 3.49 | 3.23 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 2.98 | 2.95 | -0.03 |
| Argentinos JRS | 2.27 | 2.44 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Platense and Argentinos JRS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.10
- Attack rating (Platense / Argentinos JRS)
- 0.89 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Platense / Argentinos JRS)
- 1.19 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Platense vs Argentinos JRS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Platense goals. Columns: Argentinos JRS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Platense vs Argentinos JRS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Platense vs Argentinos JRS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Platense | 29% | 3.49 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Argentinos JRS | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Platense or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Argentinos JRS) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Argentinos JRS win by 2+ | 18% | 5.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Platense and Argentinos JRS recent form
Platense
1W 1D 4L
Argentinos JRS
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Platense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.
Argentinos JRS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Platense at home only, Argentinos JRS away only.
Platense vs Argentinos JRS head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Platense 0 · draws 1 · Argentinos JRS 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Argentinos JRS | 1-0 | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-07-26 | Platense | 0-0 | Argentinos JRS | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-02-04 | Argentinos JRS | 1-0 | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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