Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

· Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires· Referee Sebastian Nicolas Martinez

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Lanus to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LanusDrawVelez Sarsfield

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLanusDrawVelez Sarsfield
Model41%31%28%
Market44%31%25%
Published43%31%26%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lanus, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 2.26Now 2.15 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lanus2.262.15-0.11
Draw2.903.00+0.10
Velez Sarsfield3.553.75+0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lanus and Velez Sarsfield expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Lanus
1.02Velez Sarsfield
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (Lanus / Velez Sarsfield)
1.11 / 1.29
Defence rating (Lanus / Velez Sarsfield)
0.89 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.4% 9.0% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 1 11.5% 14.4% 6.7% 2.3% 0.7% 2 8.2% 8.3% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 3 3.5% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Lanus goals. Columns: Velez Sarsfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lanus43%2.33
Draw31%3.21
Velez Sarsfield26%3.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.49
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.11
No53%1.90
Double chance1X (Lanus or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Velez Sarsfield)57%1.75
Handicap -1Lanus win by 2+19%5.29
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lanus and Velez Sarsfield recent form

Lanus 3W 2D 1L
Velez Sarsfield 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lanus at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-5-3
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
0.79
Clean sheets
7 of 14
  • They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Velez Sarsfield away

Record (W-D-L)
4-8-1
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
0.92
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lanus at home only, Velez Sarsfield away only.

Expected lineups

Lanus lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 N. Losada
  2. 6 S. Marcich
  3. 13 J. Canale
  4. 24 C. Izquierdoz
  5. 33 T. Guidara
  6. 30 A. Cardozo
  7. 17 A. Medina
  8. 77 L. Besozzi
  9. 10 M. Moreno
  10. 11 E. Salvio
  11. 20 A. Wlk

Bench: F. Petroli, N. Morgantini, G. Pérez, F. Peña, F. Watson, R. Loaiza, M. Sepúlveda, Y. Valois, R. Carrera, R. De Jesús, B. Acosta, G. Lobos

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Lanus 2 · draws 3 · Velez Sarsfield 5.

LanusDrawsVelez Sarsfield
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Velez Sarsfield0-1LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-08-31Velez Sarsfield3-0LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-05-22Lanus2-0Velez SarsfieldCopa Argentina
2025-02-22Lanus0-0Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-11-20Velez Sarsfield0-0LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2023-07-04Lanus0-1Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-07-21Lanus2-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-04-02Velez Sarsfield3-1LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-08-21Velez Sarsfield5-1LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-04-25Lanus1-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match