Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield: model vs market
| Source | Lanus | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Published | 42% | 32% | 27% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lanus, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 2.26 | 2.23 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 2.90 | 2.93 | +0.03 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 3.55 | 3.60 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lanus and Velez Sarsfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Lanus / Velez Sarsfield)
- 1.11 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Lanus / Velez Sarsfield)
- 0.89 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lanus goals. Columns: Velez Sarsfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lanus | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Velez Sarsfield | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lanus or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Velez Sarsfield) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lanus win by 2+ | 19% | 5.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lanus and Velez Sarsfield recent form
Lanus
3W 2D 1L
Velez Sarsfield
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lanus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velez Sarsfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-1
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lanus at home only, Velez Sarsfield away only.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lanus 2 · draws 1 · Velez Sarsfield 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-08-31 | Velez Sarsfield | 3-0 | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-05-22 | Lanus | 2-0 | Velez Sarsfield | Copa Argentina |
| 2025-02-22 | Lanus | 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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