Platense vs Lanus preview
In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Platense faces Lanus with 31% chances for Platense to win, 33% for a draw, and 36% for Lanus to secure the victory. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 0-1, which has a 14% probability. The expected goals show Platense at 0.87 and Lanus at 1.17, indicating Lanus may have the upper hand.
Both teams to score stands at 41%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 33%. Recent form shows Platense with D-D-W-L-L-L and Lanus with W-D-W-W-W-L. A surprise could come if Platense improves its scoring, as their recent performances have been inconsistent.
Platense vs Lanus: model vs market
| Source | Platense | Draw | Lanus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 33% | 42% |
| Market | 33% | 33% | 34% |
| Published | 31% | 33% | 36% |
| Edge | -8% | 0% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lanus below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.84, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Platense vs Lanus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lanus, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platense | 3.30 | 2.79 | -0.50 |
| Draw | 2.88 | 2.86 | -0.02 |
| Lanus | 2.40 | 2.75 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Platense and Lanus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Platense / Lanus)
- 0.91 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Platense / Lanus)
- 1.11 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Platense vs Lanus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Platense goals. Columns: Lanus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Platense vs Lanus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Platense vs Lanus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Platense | 31% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Lanus | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 2.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Platense or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Lanus) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lanus win by 2+ | 18% | 5.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Platense and Lanus recent form
Platense
1W 2D 3L
Lanus
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Platense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-6
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
Lanus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Platense at home only, Lanus away only.
Platense vs Lanus head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Platense 0 · draws 2 · Lanus 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Lanus | 0-0 | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-09-20 | Lanus | 2-1 | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-03-09 | Platense | 0-0 | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba — match page 2026-10-16
- Boca Juniors vs Talleres Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Banfield vs Argentinos JRS 2026-10-17
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central 2026-10-17
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page 2026-10-18
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Platense, previous: Platense v Argentinos JRS analysis
- Platense, next: Atletico Tucuman vs Platense: odds and pick
- Lanus, previous: Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield prediction