Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central preview
Atletico Tucuman faces Rosario Central with a 29% chance of winning for Tucuman and a 39% chance for Central. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 12% probability. Atletico Tucuman has struggled recently, recording 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Rosario Central has seen better form with 3 wins and 2 draws in the same period.
The expected goals suggest Atletico Tucuman will score 0.98, while Rosario Central is projected to net 1.14. There is a 35% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score. The recent head-to-head record shows Atletico Tucuman has not won against Rosario Central in their last 3 encounters, with 2 wins for Central and 1 draw.
Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Tucuman | Draw | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 32% | 38% |
| Market | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Published | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosario Central, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 2.92 | 2.93 | +0.01 |
| Rosario Central | 2.38 | 2.37 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Tucuman and Rosario Central expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.11
- Attack rating (Atletico Tucuman / Rosario Central)
- 1.08 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Atletico Tucuman / Rosario Central)
- 0.98 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Tucuman goals. Columns: Rosario Central goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Tucuman | 29% | 3.45 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Rosario Central | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Tucuman or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Rosario Central) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosario Central win by 2+ | 16% | 6.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Tucuman and Rosario Central recent form
Atletico Tucuman
1W 2D 3L
Rosario Central
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Tucuman at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosario Central away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Tucuman at home only, Rosario Central away only.
Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atletico Tucuman 0 · draws 1 · Rosario Central 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Rosario Central | 2-1 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-08-09 | Atletico Tucuman | 0-0 | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-02-08 | Rosario Central | 3-1 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Boca Juniors vs Talleres Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Banfield vs Argentinos JRS 2026-10-17
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Platense vs Lanus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page 2026-10-18
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo — match page 2026-10-18
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Aldosivi 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Atletico Tucuman, previous: Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman: odds and pick
- Atletico Tucuman, next: Atletico Tucuman vs Platense: odds and pick
- Rosario Central, previous: Rosario Central v Independ. Rivadavia analysis