Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate preview
In the upcoming match between Sarmiento Junin and River Plate, the 1X2 probabilities show River Plate at 51%, while Sarmiento Junin sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance according to our model. Both teams have shown some scoring ability, with expected goals of 1.74 for Sarmiento Junin and 1.75 for River Plate.
The match could see Over 2.5 goals, which our model predicts at 68%, and both teams to score at 69%. However, Sarmiento Junin's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 5 matches, which may affect their performance against a stronger River Plate side that has 3 wins in their last 5.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: model vs market
| Source | Sarmiento Junin | Draw | River Plate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| Market | 17% | 28% | 55% |
| Published | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Edge | +27% | -5% | -22% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate odds movement
Median bookmaker price on River Plate, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 5.50 | 5.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| River Plate | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sarmiento Junin and River Plate expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Sarmiento Junin / River Plate)
- 1.44 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Sarmiento Junin / River Plate)
- 1.40 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sarmiento Junin goals. Columns: River Plate goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarmiento Junin | 24% | 4.23 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| River Plate | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sarmiento Junin or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or River Plate) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | River Plate win by 2+ | 17% | 6.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sarmiento Junin and River Plate recent form
Sarmiento Junin
3W 1D 2L
River Plate
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sarmiento Junin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
River Plate away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sarmiento Junin at home only, River Plate away only.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sarmiento Junin 2 · draws 2 · River Plate 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | River Plate | 2-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-10-12 | River Plate | 0-1 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-04-05 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-1 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-07-28 | River Plate | 1-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2023-03-20 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-2 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-07-31 | River Plate | 1-2 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-05-01 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-7 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-08-30 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-2 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2017-04-23 | River Plate | 1-1 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2015-02-16 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-4 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Huracan vs Aldosivi 2026-10-04
- Talleres Cordoba vs Belgrano Cordoba 2026-10-04
- Argentinos JRS vs Tigre — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club 2026-10-05
- Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — team news & stats 2026-10-05
- Velez Sarsfield v Platense — match page 2026-10-05
- Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats 2026-10-05
- Banfield v Rosario Central — match page 2026-10-06
Before and after this match
- Sarmiento Junin, previous: Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin prediction
- River Plate, previous: River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto prediction