Banfield vs Rosario Central: model vs market
| Source | Banfield | Draw | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 22% | 29% | 49% |
| Published | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Edge | +10% | +2% | -12% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Banfield vs Rosario Central odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosario Central, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Rosario Central | 1.94 | 1.91 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Banfield and Rosario Central expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Banfield / Rosario Central)
- 1.17 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Banfield / Rosario Central)
- 1.43 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Banfield vs Rosario Central score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Banfield goals. Columns: Rosario Central goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Banfield vs Rosario Central goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Banfield vs Rosario Central
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Banfield | 25% | 4.04 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Rosario Central | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Banfield or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Rosario Central) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosario Central win by 2+ | 17% | 5.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Banfield and Rosario Central recent form
Banfield
0W 3D 3L
Rosario Central
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Banfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Rosario Central away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Banfield at home only, Rosario Central away only.
Banfield vs Rosario Central head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Banfield 4 · draws 3 · Rosario Central 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Rosario Central | 2-1 | Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-10-20 | Rosario Central | 1-1 | Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-01-30 | Rosario Central | 0-0 | Banfield | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 2023-08-28 | Banfield | 3-0 | Rosario Central | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 2023-05-29 | Banfield | 2-0 | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-08-22 | Rosario Central | 0-1 | Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-09-15 | Banfield | 1-2 | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-04-11 | Rosario Central | 3-1 | Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2020-12-05 | Banfield | 1-1 | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2020-11-13 | Rosario Central | 2-4 | Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Independiente v Instituto Cordoba — match page 2026-10-02
- Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe 2026-10-03
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. 2026-10-03
- Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Newells Old Boys v Lanus — match page 2026-10-03
- Huracan vs Aldosivi 2026-10-04
- Talleres Cordoba vs Belgrano Cordoba 2026-10-04