Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.

· Estadio Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza· Referee Brian Ferreyra

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Independ. Rivadavia to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Independ. RivadaviaDrawGimnasia L.P.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIndepend. RivadaviaDrawGimnasia L.P.
Model51%25%24%
Market46%29%25%
Published47%28%25%
Edge+6%-5%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Independ. Rivadavia below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Independ. Rivadavia, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-16.

Opened 1.67Now 2.06 +0.39
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Independ. Rivadavia1.672.06+0.39
Draw3.503.24-0.26
Gimnasia L.P.5.203.75-1.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Independ. Rivadavia
1.24Gimnasia L.P.
Total expected goals
3.12
Attack rating (Independ. Rivadavia / Gimnasia L.P.)
1.30 / 1.32
Defence rating (Independ. Rivadavia / Gimnasia L.P.)
1.07 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 4.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 1 7.2% 11.3% 6.4% 2.7% 1.1% 2 7.8% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 4.9% 6.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 3.5% 4.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Independ. Rivadavia goals. Columns: Gimnasia L.P. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Independ. Rivadavia47%2.12
Draw28%3.58
Gimnasia L.P.25%4.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.65
Under 2.540%2.53
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Independ. Rivadavia or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Gimnasia L.P.)53%1.89
Handicap -1Independ. Rivadavia win by 2+30%3.37
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. recent form

Independ. Rivadavia 4W 1D 1L
Gimnasia L.P. 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Independ. Rivadavia at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-1-3
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
2.21
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
1 of 14
  • They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gimnasia L.P. away

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-6
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Independ. Rivadavia at home only, Gimnasia L.P. away only.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Independ. Rivadavia 4 · draws 2 · Gimnasia L.P. 1.

Independ. RivadaviaDrawsGimnasia L.P.
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Gimnasia L.P.2-3Independ. RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-07-18Independ. Rivadavia1-0Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina
2024-01-30Gimnasia L.P.2-3Independ. RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional
2013-03-29Gimnasia L.P.3-0Independ. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
2012-09-29Independ. Rivadavia1-1Gimnasia L.P.Primera Nacional
2012-05-12Independ. Rivadavia2-1Gimnasia L.P.Primera Nacional
2011-11-12Gimnasia L.P.0-0Independ. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional

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