Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Argentinos JRS vs Tigre

· Diego Armando Maradona, Buenos Aires· Referee Andres Gariano

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Argentinos JRS to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Argentinos JRSDrawTigre

Argentinos JRS vs Tigre: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceArgentinos JRSDrawTigre
Model51%31%19%
Market52%29%20%
Published51%29%19%
Edge-1%+2%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.73.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Argentinos JRS vs Tigre odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Argentinos JRS, 30 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 1.96Now 1.83 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Argentinos JRS1.961.83-0.13
Draw2.993.28+0.29
Tigre4.474.80+0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Argentinos JRS and Tigre expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Argentinos JRS
0.73Tigre
Total expected goals
2.08
Attack rating (Argentinos JRS / Tigre)
1.06 / 0.93
Defence rating (Argentinos JRS / Tigre)
0.89 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Argentinos JRS vs Tigre score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.7% 7.9% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1 15.7% 13.5% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2 11.4% 8.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 3 5.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Argentinos JRS goals. Columns: Tigre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Argentinos JRS vs Tigre goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Argentinos JRS vs Tigre

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Argentinos JRS51%1.95
Draw29%3.42
Tigre19%5.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.90
Under 2.565%1.53
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.53
No60%1.65
Double chance1X (Argentinos JRS or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Tigre)49%2.05
Handicap -1Argentinos JRS win by 2+25%3.99
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Argentinos JRS and Tigre recent form

Argentinos JRS 1W 3D 2L
Tigre 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Argentinos JRS at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-5-0
Win rate
69%
Goals for / match
1.38
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
9 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tigre away

Record (W-D-L)
2-5-6
Win rate
15%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.08
Clean sheets
3 of 13
  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Argentinos JRS at home only, Tigre away only.

Argentinos JRS vs Tigre head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Argentinos JRS 4 · draws 2 · Tigre 4.

Argentinos JRSDrawsTigre
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-16Tigre1-1Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-07-20Tigre2-1Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-01-31Argentinos JRS1-0TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-07-18Argentinos JRS0-2TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
2023-03-06Tigre0-1Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-07-12Argentinos JRS2-1TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-05-15Tigre1-1Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional Argentina
2018-11-12Tigre2-1Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional Argentina
2018-02-12Tigre2-0Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional Argentina
2015-10-03Argentinos JRS2-1TigreLiga Profesional Argentina

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