Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Newells Old Boys vs Lanus

· Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario· Referee Dario Herrera

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Newells Old Boys to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Newells Old BoysDrawLanus

Newells Old Boys vs Lanus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNewells Old BoysDrawLanus
Model44%31%25%
Market34%32%34%
Published37%32%31%
Edge+10%-1%-9%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.89.
  • The market prices Newells Old Boys below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Newells Old Boys vs Lanus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Newells Old Boys, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 2.90Now 2.75 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Newells Old Boys2.902.75-0.15
Draw2.882.92+0.04
Lanus2.622.78+0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Newells Old Boys and Lanus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Newells Old Boys
0.89Lanus
Total expected goals
2.17
Attack rating (Newells Old Boys / Lanus)
1.11 / 1.21
Defence rating (Newells Old Boys / Lanus)
0.83 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Newells Old Boys vs Lanus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.7% 8.9% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 1 13.3% 14.3% 5.8% 1.7% 0.5% 2 9.3% 8.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 3 4.0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Newells Old Boys goals. Columns: Lanus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Newells Old Boys vs Lanus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Newells Old Boys vs Lanus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Newells Old Boys37%2.73
Draw32%3.13
Lanus31%3.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.70
Under 2.563%1.59
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.27
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (Newells Old Boys or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or Lanus)63%1.58
Handicap -1Newells Old Boys win by 2+21%4.81
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Newells Old Boys and Lanus recent form

Newells Old Boys 3W 3D 0L
Lanus 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Newells Old Boys at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-6-3
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.08
Goals against / match
1.08
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Lanus away

Record (W-D-L)
5-2-6
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.23
Goals against / match
1.15
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Newells Old Boys at home only, Lanus away only.

Newells Old Boys vs Lanus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Newells Old Boys 8 · draws 0 · Lanus 2.

Newells Old BoysDrawsLanus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-17Lanus5-0Newells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-10-05Newells Old Boys2-1LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-01-31Lanus0-2Newells Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-08-26Newells Old Boys1-0LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-05-21Lanus1-0Newells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-08-17Newells Old Boys2-0LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-09-20Lanus1-2Newells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-04-13Lanus1-3Newells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
2020-12-07Newells Old Boys3-1LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
2020-11-14Lanus2-4Newells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina

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