Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba

· Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires· Referee Hernan Mastrangelo

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was Independiente to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IndependienteDrawInstituto Cordoba

Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIndependienteDrawInstituto Cordoba
Model27%31%43%
Market39%31%30%
Published36%31%33%
Edge-12%0%+13%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Independiente, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-16.

Opened 2.40Now 2.40 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Independiente2.402.40+0.00
Draw2.943.00+0.06
Instituto Cordoba3.193.13-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Independiente and Instituto Cordoba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97Independiente
1.30Instituto Cordoba
Total expected goals
2.27
Attack rating (Independiente / Instituto Cordoba)
0.99 / 1.32
Defence rating (Independiente / Instituto Cordoba)
1.11 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.6% 12.1% 8.7% 3.8% 1.6% 1 8.7% 14.3% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 2 4.9% 6.3% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 3 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Independiente goals. Columns: Instituto Cordoba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Independiente36%2.79
Draw31%3.22
Instituto Cordoba33%3.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.52
Under 2.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.15
No53%1.87
Double chance1X (Independiente or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Instituto Cordoba)64%1.56
Handicap -1Independiente win by 2+10%9.93
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Independiente and Instituto Cordoba recent form

Independiente 3W 2D 1L
Instituto Cordoba 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Independiente at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-3
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.08
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Instituto Cordoba away

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-6
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
0.77
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente at home only, Instituto Cordoba away only.

Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Independiente 4 · draws 3 · Instituto Cordoba 2.

IndependienteDrawsInstituto Cordoba
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-17Instituto Cordoba2-1IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-08-30Instituto Cordoba0-0IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-02-22Independiente2-0Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-07-19Instituto Cordoba3-1IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-02-18Instituto Cordoba0-2IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-09-24Independiente0-0Instituto CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-03-05Independiente2-2Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
2014-06-01Instituto Cordoba1-2IndependientePrimera Nacional
2013-12-02Independiente2-0Instituto CordobaPrimera Nacional

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