Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

· Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires· Referee Sebastian Nicolas Martinez

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Boca Juniors to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Boca JuniorsDrawUnion Santa Fe

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBoca JuniorsDrawUnion Santa Fe
Model70%18%13%
Market61%24%15%
Published63%23%14%
Edge+9%-7%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Boca Juniors below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Boca Juniors, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-21.

Opened 1.64Now 1.55 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Boca Juniors1.641.55-0.08
Draw3.523.90+0.38
Union Santa Fe5.786.33+0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.63Boca Juniors
1.10Union Santa Fe
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (Boca Juniors / Union Santa Fe)
1.59 / 1.44
Defence rating (Boca Juniors / Union Santa Fe)
0.86 / 1.45

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1 5.6% 7.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 2 8.3% 9.1% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 3 7.3% 8.0% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 9.0% 9.9% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7%

Rows: Boca Juniors goals. Columns: Union Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Boca Juniors63%1.59
Draw23%4.43
Union Santa Fe14%6.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.57
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.60
No38%2.66
Double chance1X (Boca Juniors or draw)86%1.17
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Union Santa Fe)37%2.71
Handicap -1Boca Juniors win by 2+49%2.04
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe recent form

Boca Juniors 4W 2D 0L
Union Santa Fe 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Boca Juniors at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-6-1
Win rate
46%
Goals for / match
1.23
Goals against / match
0.62
Clean sheets
7 of 13
  • They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Union Santa Fe away

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-8
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.73
Clean sheets
0 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Boca Juniors at home only, Union Santa Fe away only.

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Boca Juniors 2 · draws 5 · Union Santa Fe 3.

Boca JuniorsDrawsUnion Santa Fe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-16Union Santa Fe1-1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-07-18Boca Juniors1-1Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-01-29Union Santa Fe1-1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-11-21Boca Juniors1-0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-03-06Union Santa Fe1-0Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-10-21Boca Juniors2-1Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-07-06Union Santa Fe0-0Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-06-25Boca Juniors1-2Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-07-16Union Santa Fe1-1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-04-11Union Santa Fe1-0Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures