Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central

· Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro, Tucumán San Miguel· Referee Nicolas Ramirez

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Atletico Tucuman to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

23% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico TucumanDrawBarracas Central

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico TucumanDrawBarracas Central
Model55%34%12%
Market51%31%18%
Published52%31%16%
Edge+3%+3%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.40.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico Tucuman below the model: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Tucuman, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.92Now 1.85 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Tucuman1.921.85-0.07
Draw3.003.10+0.10
Barracas Central4.705.25+0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Atletico Tucuman
0.40Barracas Central
Total expected goals
1.58
Attack rating (Atletico Tucuman / Barracas Central)
1.00 / 0.61
Defence rating (Atletico Tucuman / Barracas Central)
0.75 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.6% 7.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1 23.3% 10.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2 14.3% 5.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3 5.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Atletico Tucuman goals. Columns: Barracas Central goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%
Over 1.5 48%
Over 2.5 21%
Over 3.5 8%
Both teams to score
24%
No goals (0–0)
22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Tucuman52%1.92
Draw31%3.19
Barracas Central16%6.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.521%4.74
Under 2.579%1.27
Both teams to scoreYes24%4.18
No76%1.31
Double chance1X (Atletico Tucuman or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)69%1.46
X2 (draw or Barracas Central)48%2.09
Handicap -1Atletico Tucuman win by 2+25%3.95
Push (exactly one goal)30%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central recent form

Atletico Tucuman 1W 3D 2L
Barracas Central 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Tucuman at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-8-3
Win rate
15%
Goals for / match
0.77
Goals against / match
0.77
Clean sheets
7 of 13
  • They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Barracas Central away

Record (W-D-L)
4-6-3
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
0.69
Goals against / match
0.77
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Tucuman at home only, Barracas Central away only.

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Atletico Tucuman 3 · draws 1 · Barracas Central 2.

Atletico TucumanDrawsBarracas Central
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-16Barracas Central2-1Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-07-29Barracas Central0-2Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-02-12Barracas Central2-0Atletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-09-16Atletico Tucuman1-0Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-03-19Atletico Tucuman1-1Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-08-24Atletico Tucuman4-0Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina

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