Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo

· Estadio Norberto Tomaghello, Julio Costa· Referee Luis Lobo Medina

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Defensa Y Justicia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Defensa Y JusticiaDrawSan Lorenzo

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDefensa Y JusticiaDrawSan Lorenzo
Model47%33%20%
Market45%31%24%
Published46%32%23%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Defensa Y Justicia below the model: +2.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Defensa Y Justicia, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 2.25Now 2.09 -0.16
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Defensa Y Justicia2.252.09-0.16
Draw3.002.99-0.01
San Lorenzo3.444.00+0.56

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21Defensa Y Justicia
0.70San Lorenzo
Total expected goals
1.91
Attack rating (Defensa Y Justicia / San Lorenzo)
1.17 / 0.61
Defence rating (Defensa Y Justicia / San Lorenzo)
1.29 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.0% 9.1% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 1 16.6% 13.8% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 2 10.8% 7.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 3 4.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Defensa Y Justicia goals. Columns: San Lorenzo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Defensa Y Justicia46%2.20
Draw32%3.15
San Lorenzo23%4.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.34
Under 2.570%1.43
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.73
No63%1.58
Double chance1X (Defensa Y Justicia or draw)77%1.29
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or San Lorenzo)54%1.84
Handicap -1Defensa Y Justicia win by 2+22%4.62
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo recent form

Defensa Y Justicia 3W 2D 1L
San Lorenzo 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Defensa Y Justicia at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-6-2
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.15
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Lorenzo away

Record (W-D-L)
2-8-4
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
0.43
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Defensa Y Justicia at home only, San Lorenzo away only.

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Defensa Y Justicia 5 · draws 3 · San Lorenzo 2.

Defensa Y JusticiaDrawsSan Lorenzo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-16San Lorenzo2-5Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-09-22Defensa Y Justicia0-0San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-04-07San Lorenzo0-2Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-11-24Defensa Y Justicia1-0San LorenzoCopa Argentina
2023-11-12Defensa Y Justicia0-1San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
2023-05-08San Lorenzo0-0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-09-05Defensa Y Justicia0-0San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-02-22San Lorenzo3-4Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-09-26San Lorenzo2-1Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-03-25San Lorenzo0-2Defensa Y JusticiaCopa Argentina

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