Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Velez Sarsfield vs Platense

· Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires· Referee Sebastian Zunino

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Velez Sarsfield to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Velez SarsfieldDrawPlatense

Velez Sarsfield vs Platense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVelez SarsfieldDrawPlatense
Model60%27%13%
Market50%30%20%
Published52%29%18%
Edge+10%-4%-7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.63.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Velez Sarsfield below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Velez Sarsfield vs Platense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Velez Sarsfield, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 1.87Now 1.88 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Velez Sarsfield1.871.88+0.01
Draw3.103.10+0.00
Platense4.804.64-0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Velez Sarsfield and Platense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Velez Sarsfield
0.63Platense
Total expected goals
2.24
Attack rating (Velez Sarsfield / Platense)
1.25 / 0.77
Defence rating (Velez Sarsfield / Platense)
0.92 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Velez Sarsfield vs Platense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 5.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1 16.0% 11.9% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2 13.8% 8.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 3 7.4% 4.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 4.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Velez Sarsfield goals. Columns: Platense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Velez Sarsfield vs Platense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Velez Sarsfield vs Platense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Velez Sarsfield52%1.91
Draw29%3.42
Platense18%5.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.57
Under 2.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.59
No61%1.63
Double chance1X (Velez Sarsfield or draw)82%1.23
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Platense)48%2.10
Handicap -1Velez Sarsfield win by 2+34%2.96
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Velez Sarsfield and Platense recent form

Velez Sarsfield 2W 4D 0L
Platense 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Velez Sarsfield at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-4-2
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Platense away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-5
Win rate
23%
Goals for / match
0.85
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Velez Sarsfield at home only, Platense away only.

Velez Sarsfield vs Platense head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Velez Sarsfield 2 · draws 2 · Platense 3.

Velez SarsfieldDrawsPlatense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-14Platense0-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-07-19Platense0-0Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-01-29Velez Sarsfield0-1PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-07-25Platense0-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
2023-03-14Velez Sarsfield1-1PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-06-12Velez Sarsfield0-1PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
2021-12-10Platense3-2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

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