Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

· Estadio Guillermo Laza, Flores· Referee Andres Merlos

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Deportivo Riestra to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo RiestraDrawCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo RiestraDrawCentral Cordoba de Santiago
Model42%33%25%
Market50%30%20%
Published48%31%21%
Edge-8%+3%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.84.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Riestra, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 1.90Now 1.87 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportivo Riestra1.901.87-0.03
Draw3.143.13-0.01
Central Cordoba de Santiago4.694.75+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo Riestra and Central Cordoba de Santiago expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Deportivo Riestra
0.84Central Cordoba de Santiago
Total expected goals
2.03
Attack rating (Deportivo Riestra / Central Cordoba de Santiago)
0.77 / 0.88
Defence rating (Deportivo Riestra / Central Cordoba de Santiago)
1.08 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.5% 9.8% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 1 14.3% 14.5% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 2 9.2% 7.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 3 3.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Deportivo Riestra goals. Columns: Central Cordoba de Santiago goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo Riestra48%2.07
Draw31%3.26
Central Cordoba de Santiago21%4.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.02
Under 2.567%1.49
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.45
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Deportivo Riestra or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago)52%1.93
Handicap -1Deportivo Riestra win by 2+19%5.25
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Deportivo Riestra and Central Cordoba de Santiago recent form

Deportivo Riestra 0W 5D 1L
Central Cordoba de Santiago 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo Riestra at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-4
Win rate
23%
Goals for / match
0.77
Goals against / match
0.69
Clean sheets
6 of 13
  • They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 26 matches.

Central Cordoba de Santiago away

Record (W-D-L)
1-4-8
Win rate
8%
Goals for / match
0.38
Goals against / match
1.46
Clean sheets
3 of 13
  • They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Riestra at home only, Central Cordoba de Santiago away only.

Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Deportivo Riestra 2 · draws 1 · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1.

Deportivo RiestraDrawsCentral Cordoba de Santiago
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-18Central Cordoba de Santiago1-0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-09-12Deportivo Riestra2-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-03-01Central Cordoba de Santiago0-0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-08-05Deportivo Riestra1-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina

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