Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.

· Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata· Referee Yael Falcon Perez

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Estudiantes L.P. to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Estudiantes L.P.DrawGimnasia M.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEstudiantes L.P.DrawGimnasia M.
Model41%31%28%
Market56%26%18%
Published52%28%20%
Edge-15%+5%+10%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Estudiantes L.P., 20 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 1.70Now 1.67 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Estudiantes L.P.1.701.67-0.03
Draw3.503.52+0.02
Gimnasia M.5.205.21+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estudiantes L.P. and Gimnasia M. expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Estudiantes L.P.
1.00Gimnasia M.
Total expected goals
2.26
Attack rating (Estudiantes L.P. / Gimnasia M.)
1.07 / 1.22
Defence rating (Estudiantes L.P. / Gimnasia M.)
0.92 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 9.1% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 1 11.9% 14.4% 6.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2 8.3% 8.3% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 3 3.5% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Estudiantes L.P. goals. Columns: Gimnasia M. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Estudiantes L.P.52%1.92
Draw28%3.63
Gimnasia M.20%4.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.54
Under 2.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.14
No53%1.87
Double chance1X (Estudiantes L.P. or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Gimnasia M.)48%2.09
Handicap -1Estudiantes L.P. win by 2+19%5.25
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Estudiantes L.P. and Gimnasia M. recent form

Estudiantes L.P. 2W 1D 3L
Gimnasia M. 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estudiantes L.P. at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-2-4
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
7 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gimnasia M. away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-7
Win rate
23%
Goals for / match
0.85
Goals against / match
1.54
Clean sheets
3 of 13
  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Estudiantes L.P. at home only, Gimnasia M. away only.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Estudiantes L.P. 1 · draws 0 · Gimnasia M. 0.

Estudiantes L.P.DrawsGimnasia M.
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-18Gimnasia M.1-2Estudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina

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