Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. preview

Flamengo faces Estudiantes L.P. with a 58% chance to win compared to Estudiantes L.P.'s 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time according to our model. Flamengo's expected goals stand at 1.72, while Estudiantes L.P. has an expected 0.81.

However, there are factors that could change this outcome. Both teams to score is at 47%, indicating a nearly even chance for both teams to find the net. Additionally, Flamengo's recent form shows a mix of results, while Estudiantes L.P. has won 3 of their last 6 matches. This could influence the match dynamics and final result.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Flamengo	Draw	Estudiantes L.P.
Model	58%	26%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	58%	26%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.81.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Flamengo

0.81Estudiantes L.P.

Total expected goals: 2.52
Attack rating (Flamengo / Estudiantes L.P.): 1.42 / 1.19
Defence rating (Flamengo / Estudiantes L.P.): 0.74 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 5.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.7% 12.2% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.8% 9.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3 6.8% 5.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 4.3% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Flamengo goals. Columns: Estudiantes L.P. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Flamengo	58%	1.73
	Draw	26%	3.87
	Estudiantes L.P.	16%	6.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.16
	Under 2.5	54%	1.86
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.15
	No	53%	1.87
Double chance	1X (Flamengo or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Estudiantes L.P.)	42%	2.38
Handicap -1	Flamengo win by 2+	33%	3.00
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. recent form

Flamengo 4W 2D 0L

Estudiantes L.P. 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Flamengo at home

Record (W-D-L): 4-1-0
Win rate: 80%
Goals for / match: 2.20
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.

Estudiantes L.P. away

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-1
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.20
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Flamengo at home only, Estudiantes L.P. away only.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Flamengo 2 · draws 1 · Estudiantes L.P. 1.

50% 25% 25%

FlamengoDrawsEstudiantes L.P.

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-21	Flamengo	1-0	Estudiantes L.P.	CONMEBOL Libertadores
2026-04-30	Estudiantes L.P.	1-1	Flamengo	CONMEBOL Libertadores
2025-09-26	Estudiantes L.P.	1-0	Flamengo	CONMEBOL Libertadores
2025-09-19	Flamengo	2-1	Estudiantes L.P.	CONMEBOL Libertadores

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Fluminense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-15
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo 2026-10-16
Palmeiras v Fluminense — match page 2026-10-22

Before and after this match

Flamengo, previous: Bahia vs Flamengo: odds and pick
Estudiantes L.P., previous: Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo prediction

Prediction snapshot Flamengo to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Flamengo