Palmeiras vs Fluminense preview
In the CONMEBOL Libertadores match between Palmeiras and Fluminense, the 1X2 probabilities show Palmeiras at 59% to win, while Fluminense sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% chance of occurring. Palmeiras has been in strong form with 6 wins and 1 draw in their last 7 matches, while Fluminense has mixed results, with 4 wins and 3 losses in their last 7.
Despite the favorable statistics for Palmeiras, there is a 47% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. This suggests that Fluminense could find the net, potentially complicating the predicted outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense: model vs market
| Source | Palmeiras | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Palmeiras and Fluminense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Palmeiras / Fluminense)
- 1.34 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Palmeiras / Fluminense)
- 0.61 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: Fluminense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Palmeiras vs Fluminense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Fluminense | 16% | 6.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Palmeiras or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Fluminense) | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Palmeiras and Fluminense recent form
Palmeiras
5W 1D 0L
Fluminense
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Palmeiras at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, Fluminense away only.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Palmeiras 3 · draws 3 · Fluminense 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Fluminense | 3-2 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
| 2026-02-26 | Palmeiras | 2-1 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-23 | Palmeiras | 0-0 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-23 | Fluminense | 1-2 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-12-08 | Palmeiras | 0-1 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 2024-07-25 | Fluminense | 1-0 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 2023-12-03 | Palmeiras | 1-0 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 2023-08-06 | Fluminense | 2-1 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 2022-08-27 | Fluminense | 1-1 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 2022-05-08 | Palmeiras | 1-1 | Fluminense | Serie A |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Fluminense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-15
- Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo 2026-10-16
- Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P. — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Palmeiras, previous: Atletico Paranaense – Palmeiras, 2026-10-17
- Fluminense, previous: Fluminense – Santos, 2026-10-18