Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras preview
Atletico Paranaense faces Palmeiras with a 39% chance for an away win compared to 33% for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with Palmeiras expected to score 1.52 goals and Atletico Paranaense 1.29.
Recent form shows Palmeiras on a strong run with 6 consecutive wins, while Atletico Paranaense has 2 wins in their last 6 matches. The model predicts a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, if Atletico Paranaense can improve their home performance, the outcome may differ from the forecast.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Paranaense | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below the model: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 2.84 | 2.84 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.28 | +0.00 |
| Palmeiras | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Atletico Paranaense / Palmeiras)
- 1.49 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Atletico Paranaense / Palmeiras)
- 1.19 / 0.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Paranaense goals. Columns: Palmeiras goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 33% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Palmeiras | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Paranaense or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Palmeiras) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win by 2+ | 21% | 4.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras recent form
Atletico Paranaense
2W 3D 1L
Palmeiras
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Paranaense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Palmeiras away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-2
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Paranaense at home only, Palmeiras away only.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 0 · draws 0 · Palmeiras 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Palmeiras | 1-0 | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Mirassol vs Internacional 2026-10-16
- Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico-MG v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-17
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-10-18
- Fluminense vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Gremio v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-18
- Bahia vs Flamengo 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Atletico Paranaense, previous: Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense analysis
- Palmeiras, previous: Fluminense vs Palmeiras: odds and pick
- Palmeiras, next: Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction