Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense

· Arena Condá, Chapeco· Referee Wilton Sampaio

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was Atletico Paranaense to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Chapecoense-scDrawAtletico Paranaense

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChapecoense-scDrawAtletico Paranaense
Model28%24%48%
Market24%27%50%
Published25%26%49%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.49.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Paranaense, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.05Now 1.90 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chapecoense-sc3.443.99+0.55
Draw3.403.56+0.16
Atletico Paranaense2.051.90-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49Chapecoense-sc
1.99Atletico Paranaense
Total expected goals
3.48
Attack rating (Chapecoense-sc / Atletico Paranaense)
0.79 / 1.34
Defence rating (Chapecoense-sc / Atletico Paranaense)
1.41 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 5.2% 6.1% 4.0% 3.2% 1 3.7% 10.1% 9.1% 6.0% 4.7% 2 3.4% 6.8% 6.8% 4.5% 3.5% 3 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 4+ 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9%

Rows: Chapecoense-sc goals. Columns: Atletico Paranaense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chapecoense-sc25%4.03
Draw26%3.88
Atletico Paranaense49%2.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.08
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.11
Double chance1X (Chapecoense-sc or draw)51%1.98
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Atletico Paranaense)75%1.33
Handicap -1Atletico Paranaense win by 2+28%3.54
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense recent form

Chapecoense-sc 2W 1D 3L
Atletico Paranaense 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chapecoense-sc at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-5-6
Win rate
15%
Goals for / match
1.38
Goals against / match
2.23
Clean sheets
2 of 13
  • They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Atletico Paranaense away

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-6
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Chapecoense-sc at home only, Atletico Paranaense away only.

Injuries & availability

Chapecoense-sc absences

  • Fernando yellow cards
  • Heitor hamstring injury
  • Max Alves back injury
  • Rafael Carvalheira knee injury
  • Robert Conceicao knee injury
  • Vinicius Balieiro knee injury

Atletico Paranaense absences

  • Dantas inactive
  • G. Benavidez muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Chapecoense-sc lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 98 Anderson
  2. 91 Bruno Pacheco
  3. 4 João Paulo
  4. 21 Kauan Faria Gomes
  5. 23 Dudu
  6. 16 Bruno Matias
  7. 88 Yago Felipe
  8. 31 Garcez
  9. 10 Giovanni Augusto
  10. 7 Marcinho

Bench: Doma, Mancha, Y. Bolasie, Gabriel Werner, Rafael Thyere, David Antunes, Bruno Tubarão, F. Rossi, Matheus Aurélio, Rodrigo, Miguel Carvalho

Atletico Paranaense lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Mycael
  2. 37 L. Esquivel
  3. 33 J. Aguirre
  4. 4 Arthur Dias
  5. 7 S. Mendoza
  6. 14 Luiz Gustavo
  7. 16 Jádson
  8. 12 Gilberto
  9. 8 João Cruz
  10. 21 Leozinho
  11. 9 K. Viveros

Bench: Gilberto, Léo, Felipinho, B. Zapelli, Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto, Santos, Claudinho, J. Portilla, Chiqueti, Dudu, Renan

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Chapecoense-sc 1 · draws 6 · Atletico Paranaense 3.

Chapecoense-scDrawsAtletico Paranaense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Atletico Paranaense2-0Chapecoense-scBrazil Serie A
2025-09-17Chapecoense-sc2-3Atletico ParanaenseBrazil Serie B
2025-05-09Atletico Paranaense1-1Chapecoense-scBrazil Serie B
2021-10-13Chapecoense-sc1-1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
2021-06-27Atletico Paranaense2-2Chapecoense-scSerie A
2019-09-29Atletico Paranaense1-1Chapecoense-scSerie A
2019-05-05Chapecoense-sc1-1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
2018-09-13Chapecoense-sc2-1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
2018-04-15Atletico Paranaense5-1Chapecoense-scSerie A
2017-10-29Atletico Paranaense0-0Chapecoense-scSerie A

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match