Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: model vs market
| Source | Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 25% | 41% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 45% |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Edge | +8% | -3% | -5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Paranaense, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Chapecoense-sc / Atletico Paranaense)
- 0.89 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Chapecoense-sc / Atletico Paranaense)
- 1.26 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chapecoense-sc goals. Columns: Atletico Paranaense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chapecoense-sc | 29% | 3.45 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chapecoense-sc or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Paranaense) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Paranaense win by 2+ | 22% | 4.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense recent form
Chapecoense-sc
2W 2D 2L
Atletico Paranaense
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chapecoense-sc at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.23
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Atletico Paranaense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Chapecoense-sc at home only, Atletico Paranaense away only.
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Chapecoense-sc 0 · draws 1 · Atletico Paranaense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Atletico Paranaense | 2-0 | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-17 | Chapecoense-sc | 2-3 | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-05-09 | Atletico Paranaense | 1-1 | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie B |
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