Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria

· Morumbi, Sao Paulo· Referee Lucas Casagrande

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Sao Paulo to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sao PauloDrawVitoria

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSao PauloDrawVitoria
Model42%31%27%
Market58%25%17%
Published54%26%20%
Edge-4%+2%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sao Paulo, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.62Now 1.62 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sao Paulo1.621.62+0.00
Draw3.753.79+0.04
Vitoria5.505.50+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sao Paulo and Vitoria expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.26Sao Paulo
0.97Vitoria
Total expected goals
2.23
Attack rating (Sao Paulo / Vitoria)
0.77 / 0.96
Defence rating (Sao Paulo / Vitoria)
0.96 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.1% 9.1% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 1 12.3% 14.5% 6.4% 2.0% 0.6% 2 8.6% 8.3% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 3 3.6% 3.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 1.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Sao Paulo goals. Columns: Vitoria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 38%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sao Paulo54%1.85
Draw26%3.78
Vitoria20%5.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538%2.60
Under 2.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.19
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Sao Paulo or draw)80%1.24
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Vitoria)46%2.17
Handicap -1Sao Paulo win by 2+19%5.17
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sao Paulo and Vitoria recent form

Sao Paulo 1W 1D 4L
Vitoria 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sao Paulo at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-3
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
0.86
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vitoria away

Record (W-D-L)
0-5-9
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.71
Goals against / match
2.14
Clean sheets
1 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Sao Paulo at home only, Vitoria away only.

Injuries & availability

Sao Paulo absences

  • Buta knee injury
  • D. Duarte knee injury
  • Ferreira injury
  • Luciano inactive
  • N. Bosshardt inactive

Vitoria absences

  • Baralhas broken leg
  • Camutanga broken leg
  • D. Tarzia yellow cards
  • Dudu back injury
  • Edu achilles tendon injury
  • Fabiano knee injury
  • Nathan Mendes knee injury
  • Ramon leg injury
  • Riccieli calf injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sao Paulo lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 23 Rafael
  2. 35 Sabino
  3. 5 R. Arboleda
  4. 28 Newton
  5. 12 Iago
  6. 48 D. Ferreira
  7. 16 D. Bobadilla
  8. 19 Lucas Ramon
  9. 43 G. Santana
  10. 37 Artur
  11. 9 J. Calleri

Bench: R. Tolói, Lucas Moura, Marcos Antônio, André Silva, Wendell, Victor Sá, Pablo Maia, Carlos Coronel, Pedro Lima, Lucca Marques Alencar, Pedro Ferreira, Ryan Francisco

Vitoria lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Lucas Arcanjo
  2. 83 Jamerson
  3. 36 Luan Cândido
  4. 25 Cacá
  5. 98 Mateusinho
  6. 10 Matheuzinho
  7. 20 Lucas Silva
  8. 6 E. Martínez
  9. 95 Caíque
  10. 33 Erick
  11. 91 Rene

Bench: E. Brítez, Marinho, T. Pochettino, Alex Bruno, Walace, Fabrício, Edenilson, Yuri Sena, I. Laquintana, Renato Kayzer, Zé Vitor

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sao Paulo 7 · draws 0 · Vitoria 3.

Sao PauloDrawsVitoria
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Vitoria2-0Sao PauloBrazil Serie A
2025-12-07Vitoria1-0Sao PauloBrazil Serie A
2025-08-09Sao Paulo2-0VitoriaBrazil Serie A
2024-08-25Sao Paulo2-1VitoriaSerie A
2024-05-05Vitoria1-3Sao PauloSerie A
2018-10-26Vitoria0-1Sao PauloSerie A
2018-06-13Sao Paulo3-0VitoriaSerie A
2017-09-17Vitoria1-2Sao PauloSerie A
2017-06-08Sao Paulo2-0VitoriaSerie A
2016-09-25Vitoria2-0Sao PauloSerie A

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match