Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: model vs market
| Source | Sao Paulo | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Published | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Edge | -3% | +4% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sao Paulo, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 1.62 | 1.62 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| Vitoria | 5.50 | 5.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sao Paulo and Vitoria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Sao Paulo / Vitoria)
- 0.82 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Sao Paulo / Vitoria)
- 0.89 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sao Paulo goals. Columns: Vitoria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Vitoria | 17% | 5.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.54 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sao Paulo or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Vitoria) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win by 2+ | 29% | 3.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sao Paulo and Vitoria recent form
Sao Paulo
2W 1D 3L
Vitoria
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sao Paulo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-9
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sao Paulo at home only, Vitoria away only.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sao Paulo 1 · draws 0 · Vitoria 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Vitoria | 2-0 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-12-07 | Vitoria | 1-0 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-09 | Sao Paulo | 2-0 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
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