Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Flamengo vs Fluminense

· Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro· Referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Flamengo to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FlamengoDrawFluminense

Flamengo vs Fluminense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFlamengoDrawFluminense
Model51%26%23%
Market65%22%14%
Published61%23%16%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.06.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Flamengo vs Fluminense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.34Now 1.45 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Flamengo1.341.45+0.11
Draw4.804.33-0.47
Fluminense8.606.90-1.70

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Flamengo and Fluminense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Flamengo
1.06Fluminense
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (Flamengo / Fluminense)
1.33 / 1.34
Defence rating (Flamengo / Fluminense)
0.75 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Flamengo vs Fluminense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.6% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 1 9.0% 11.7% 5.6% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.3% 9.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.8% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 4.1% 4.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Flamengo goals. Columns: Fluminense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Flamengo vs Fluminense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Flamengo vs Fluminense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Flamengo61%1.63
Draw23%4.40
Fluminense16%6.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.19
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Flamengo or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Fluminense)39%2.59
Handicap -1Flamengo win by 2+32%3.08
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Flamengo and Fluminense recent form

Flamengo 4W 2D 0L
Fluminense 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Flamengo at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-1
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
7 of 14
  • They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fluminense away

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-5
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
1 of 14
  • They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Flamengo at home only, Fluminense away only.

Injuries & availability

Flamengo absences

  • Ayrton Lucas thigh injury
  • Evertton Araujo thigh injury
  • G. Varela inactive
  • G. de Arrascaeta wrist injury
  • Jorginho suspended
  • Leo Ortiz inactive

Fluminense absences

  • Alisson hip injury
  • G. Cano hamstring injury
  • John Kennedy knee injury
  • Matheus Reis knee injury
  • Rene inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Flamengo lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Rossi
  2. 26 Alex Sandro
  3. 4 Léo Pereira
  4. 3 Léo Ortiz
  5. 2 G. Varela
  6. 8 Saúl
  7. 5 E. Pulgar
  8. 16 Samuel Lino
  9. 11 Lucas Paquetá
  10. 15 J. Carrascal
  11. 9 Pedro

Bench: Luiz Araújo, Danilo, A. Valencia, N. de la Cruz, G. Plata, Emerson Royal, Bruno Henrique, J. Freitas, Andrew, Vitão, Dyogo, Johnny Góes

Fluminense lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Fábio
  2. 13 Guilherme Arana
  3. 29 J. Millán
  4. 4 Ignacio
  5. 2 Samuel Xavier
  6. 8 Martinelli
  7. 16 Nonato
  8. 30 Y. Soteldo
  9. 32 L. Acosta
  10. 17 A. Canobbio
  11. 19 R. Castillo

Bench: Thiago Silva, Hulk, PH Ganso, J. Savarino, Igor Rabello, J. Freytes, Guga, Wesley Nata, Hércules, K. Serna, Otávio, Vitor Eudes

Flamengo vs Fluminense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Flamengo 4 · draws 3 · Fluminense 3.

FlamengoDrawsFluminense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Fluminense1-2FlamengoBrazil Serie A
2026-03-08Fluminense0-0FlamengoCarioca - 1
2026-01-25Fluminense2-1FlamengoCarioca - 1
2025-11-20Fluminense2-1FlamengoBrazil Serie A
2025-07-20Flamengo1-0FluminenseBrazil Serie A
2025-03-16Flamengo0-0FluminenseCarioca - 1
2025-03-13Fluminense1-2FlamengoCarioca - 1
2025-02-08Fluminense0-0FlamengoCarioca - 1
2024-10-17Flamengo0-2FluminenseSerie A
2024-06-23Fluminense0-1FlamengoSerie A

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match