Flamengo vs Fluminense: model vs market
| Source | Flamengo | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Published | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Edge | -7% | +4% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Flamengo vs Fluminense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.34 | 1.33 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 4.80 | -0.00 |
| Fluminense | 8.60 | 8.70 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Flamengo and Fluminense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Flamengo / Fluminense)
- 1.36 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Flamengo / Fluminense)
- 0.64 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flamengo vs Fluminense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flamengo goals. Columns: Fluminense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flamengo vs Fluminense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flamengo vs Fluminense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.92 | |
| Fluminense | 12% | 8.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flamengo or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Fluminense) | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Flamengo and Fluminense recent form
Flamengo
5W 1D 0L
Fluminense
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flamengo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-5
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Flamengo at home only, Fluminense away only.
Flamengo vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Flamengo 2 · draws 0 · Fluminense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Fluminense | 1-2 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-20 | Fluminense | 2-1 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-20 | Flamengo | 1-0 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
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- Sao Paulo v Vitoria — match page 2026-10-11
- Atletico-MG vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Palmeiras vs Corinthians 2026-10-11
- Gremio vs Internacional 2026-10-11
- Bahia vs Mirassol — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Coritiba vs Botafogo 2026-10-12
- Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense — match page 2026-10-12