Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Bahia vs Mirassol

· Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador· Referee Ramon Abatti

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Bahia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BahiaDrawMirassol

Bahia vs Mirassol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBahiaDrawMirassol
Model55%26%19%
Market56%24%20%
Published56%24%20%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bahia vs Mirassol odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bahia, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.67Now 1.67 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bahia1.671.67+0.00
Draw3.953.94-0.02
Mirassol4.754.67-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bahia and Mirassol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Bahia
0.95Mirassol
Total expected goals
2.71
Attack rating (Bahia / Mirassol)
1.14 / 0.92
Defence rating (Bahia / Mirassol)
0.98 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bahia vs Mirassol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 5.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1 10.6% 12.2% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.3% 9.8% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3 6.0% 5.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 4.0% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Bahia goals. Columns: Mirassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bahia vs Mirassol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bahia vs Mirassol

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bahia56%1.79
Draw24%4.12
Mirassol20%5.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Bahia or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Mirassol)44%2.26
Handicap -1Bahia win by 2+32%3.15
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bahia and Mirassol recent form

Bahia 4W 0D 2L
Mirassol 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bahia at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-6-2
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Mirassol away

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-8
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
0 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bahia at home only, Mirassol away only.

Injuries & availability

Bahia absences

  • Leo Vieira knee injury
  • Nicolas Acevedo yellow cards

Mirassol absences

  • Joao Victor suspended
  • Jose Aldo muscle injury
  • Negueba knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bahia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Ronaldo
  2. 46 Luciano Juba
  3. 3 Marco Moreno
  4. 33 David Duarte
  5. 44 Marcos Victor
  6. 11 Rodrigo Nestor
  7. 8 Caio Alexandre
  8. 6 Jean Lucas
  9. 16 Erick Pulga
  10. 9 A. Véliz
  11. 99 C. Olivera

Bench: Kanu, Ademir, Éverton Ribeiro, Willian José, Erick, M. Araújo, G. Herrera, Lautaro López, M. Sanabria, Everaldo, Roman Gomez, Zé Guilherme

Mirassol lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 22 Walter
  2. 6 Reinaldo
  3. 3 Willian Machado
  4. 2 Lucas Oliveira
  5. 77 Alesson
  6. 32 Igor Formiga
  7. 10 Chico
  8. 25 Neto Moura
  9. 27 Denilson
  10. 19 Gustavo Silva
  11. 30 Bruno Santos

Bench: Shaylon, André Luís, Victor Luís, Fernandinho, Daniel Borges, Eduardo, Gabriel, Wallisson, Thomazella, Edson, Carlos Eduardo, Zé Roberto

Bahia vs Mirassol head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Bahia 1 · draws 1 · Mirassol 1.

BahiaDrawsMirassol
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Mirassol1-2BahiaBrazil Serie A
2025-08-31Mirassol5-1BahiaBrazil Serie A
2025-04-13Bahia1-1MirassolBrazil Serie A

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match