Bahia vs Mirassol: model vs market
| Source | Bahia | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bahia below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bahia vs Mirassol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bahia, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| Mirassol | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bahia and Mirassol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Bahia / Mirassol)
- 1.25 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Bahia / Mirassol)
- 1.01 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bahia vs Mirassol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bahia goals. Columns: Mirassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bahia vs Mirassol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bahia vs Mirassol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Mirassol | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bahia or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Mirassol) | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bahia win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bahia and Mirassol recent form
Bahia
4W 1D 1L
Mirassol
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bahia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-8
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bahia at home only, Mirassol away only.
Bahia vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bahia 1 · draws 1 · Mirassol 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Mirassol | 1-2 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-31 | Mirassol | 5-1 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-13 | Bahia | 1-1 | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A |
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