Atletico-MG vs Santos: model vs market
| Source | Atletico-MG | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.12.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico-MG vs Santos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico-MG, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Santos | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico-MG and Santos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Atletico-MG / Santos)
- 1.14 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Atletico-MG / Santos)
- 0.89 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico-MG vs Santos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico-MG goals. Columns: Santos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico-MG vs Santos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico-MG vs Santos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Santos | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico-MG or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Santos) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico-MG and Santos recent form
Atletico-MG
3W 1D 2L
Santos
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico-MG at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico-MG at home only, Santos away only.
Atletico-MG vs Santos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico-MG 3 · draws 3 · Santos 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Santos | 4-2 | Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2026-09-09 | Atletico-MG | 2-0 | Santos | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2026-09-09 | Santos | 2-0 | Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2026-04-11 | Santos | 1-0 | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-14 | Atletico-MG | 1-1 | Santos | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-17 | Santos | 2-0 | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-08-27 | Atletico-MG | 2-0 | Santos | Serie A |
| 2023-04-23 | Santos | 0-0 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 2022-10-06 | Santos | 1-2 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 2022-06-11 | Atletico-MG | 1-1 | Santos | Serie A |
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