Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Atletico-MG vs Santos

· Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta· Referee Alex Gomes Stefano

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Atletico-MG to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico-MGDrawSantos

Atletico-MG vs Santos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico-MGDrawSantos
Model49%25%26%
Market44%27%29%
Published45%27%28%
Edge+1%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.21.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico-MG vs Santos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico-MG, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.00Now 2.15 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico-MG2.002.15+0.15
Draw3.403.45+0.05
Santos3.703.24-0.46

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico-MG and Santos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Atletico-MG
1.21Santos
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Atletico-MG / Santos)
1.20 / 1.21
Defence rating (Atletico-MG / Santos)
0.95 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico-MG vs Santos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 4.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 1 7.5% 11.4% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 2 8.0% 9.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 3 5.0% 6.1% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 3.6% 4.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: Atletico-MG goals. Columns: Santos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico-MG vs Santos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico-MG vs Santos

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico-MG45%2.22
Draw27%3.74
Santos28%3.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.44
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.55
Double chance1X (Atletico-MG or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Santos)55%1.82
Handicap -1Atletico-MG win by 2+30%3.32
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico-MG and Santos recent form

Atletico-MG 3W 2D 1L
Santos 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico-MG at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-5-1
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Santos away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-5
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.64
Goals against / match
1.64
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico-MG at home only, Santos away only.

Injuries & availability

Atletico-MG absences

  • Cuello yellow cards
  • Everson foot injury
  • Fred injury
  • Gustavo Scarpa inactive
  • M. Cassierra injury
  • Ruan Tressoldi muscle injury
  • T. Perez suspended

Santos absences

  • Arthur Melo injury
  • Everton inactive
  • Gabriel Brazao shoulder injury
  • Vinicius Lira knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Atletico-MG lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Gabriel Delfim
  2. 36 K. Pascini
  3. 14 Vitor Hugo
  4. 3 Léo Duarte
  5. 2 Natanael
  6. 5 Alexsander
  7. 21 A. Franco
  8. 15 K. Castaño
  9. 30 Victor Hugo
  10. 17 Igor Gomes
  11. 18 T. Borbas

Bench: Renan Lodi, Maycon, Lyanco, Reinier, A. Preciado, A. Minda, Caua, Robert, Mamady Cisse, Vitão, Pedro Lemos, Dudu

Santos lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Diógenes
  2. 31 G. Escobar
  3. 15 Willian Arão
  4. 4 Lucas Veríssimo
  5. 23 Rodinei
  6. 28 C. Oliva
  7. 48 Gustavo Henrique Pereira
  8. 7 Everton
  9. 32 B. Rollheiser
  10. 8 Gabriel Bontempo
  11. 9 Gabriel Barbosa

Bench: Á. Barreal

Atletico-MG vs Santos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico-MG 4 · draws 3 · Santos 3.

Atletico-MGDrawsSantos
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-16Atletico-MG4-2SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
2026-09-09Santos2-0Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
2026-04-11Santos1-0Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2025-09-14Atletico-MG1-1SantosBrazil Serie A
2025-04-17Santos2-0Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2023-08-27Atletico-MG2-0SantosSerie A
2023-04-23Santos0-0Atletico-MGSerie A
2022-10-06Santos1-2Atletico-MGSerie A
2022-06-11Atletico-MG1-1SantosSerie A
2021-10-13Atletico-MG3-1SantosSerie A

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match