Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Coritiba vs Botafogo

· Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba· Referee Matheus Delgado Candancan

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Coritiba to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CoritibaDrawBotafogo

Coritiba vs Botafogo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCoritibaDrawBotafogo
Model47%25%28%
Market36%27%37%
Published38%27%35%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.36.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Coritiba below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Coritiba vs Botafogo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Coritiba, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.58Now 2.64 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Coritiba2.582.64+0.05
Draw3.353.48+0.12
Botafogo2.592.52-0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Coritiba and Botafogo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Coritiba
1.36Botafogo
Total expected goals
3.17
Attack rating (Coritiba / Botafogo)
0.96 / 0.80
Defence rating (Coritiba / Botafogo)
1.62 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Coritiba vs Botafogo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 4.7% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.6% 11.4% 7.1% 3.2% 1.5% 2 6.9% 9.3% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.6% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 4+ 2.8% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%

Rows: Coritiba goals. Columns: Botafogo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Coritiba vs Botafogo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Coritiba vs Botafogo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Coritiba38%2.60
Draw27%3.77
Botafogo35%2.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.58
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.72
Double chance1X (Coritiba or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Botafogo)62%1.63
Handicap -1Coritiba win by 2+26%3.80
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Coritiba and Botafogo recent form

Coritiba 2W 1D 3L
Botafogo 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Coritiba at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-5
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.36
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Botafogo away

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-8
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.21
Goals against / match
1.79
Clean sheets
1 of 14
  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Coritiba at home only, Botafogo away only.

Injuries & availability

Coritiba absences

  • B. Ocampo ankle injury
  • Bruno Melo yellow cards
  • Jacy injury
  • Keno knee injury
  • Lucas Ronier knee injury
  • Lucas Taverna inactive
  • Pedro Morisco inactive
  • Tiago Coser inactive

Botafogo absences

  • J. Barrera ankle injury
  • Kaio Pantaleao knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Coritiba lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Pedro Luccas
  2. 6 Felipe Jonatan
  3. 23 Tiago Cóser
  4. 55 Jacy
  5. 14 F. Bustos
  6. 19 S. Gómez
  7. 21 Thiago Santos
  8. 7 J. Lavega
  9. 10 Josué
  10. 18 Paulo Roberto
  11. 32 Pedro Rocha

Bench: Tinga, Maicon, Rodrigo Moledo, N. Fonseca, B. Ocampo, Pedro Rangel, Vini Paulista, Gustavo, Rodrigo Gelado, Breno Lopes, Renato Marques, Rodrigo Rodrigues

Botafogo lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Gabriel Batista
  2. 13 Alex Telles
  3. 21 Marçal
  4. 5 N. Ferraresi
  5. 2 Vitinho
  6. 25 Allan
  7. 8 Danilo Santos
  8. 11 Matheus Martins
  9. 22 H. Ziyech
  10. 6 C. Medina
  11. 19 Arthur Cabral

Bench: M. Ponte, Júnior Santos, Tiquinho Soares, Álvaro Montoro, Warleson, Paulinho, G. Justino, K. Barria, Kauan Toledo, Huguinho, Danilo, Domingos Andrade

Coritiba vs Botafogo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Coritiba 1 · draws 3 · Botafogo 6.

CoritibaDrawsBotafogo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Botafogo2-2CoritibaBrazil Serie A
2023-11-30Coritiba1-1BotafogoSerie A
2023-07-30Botafogo4-1CoritibaSerie A
2022-09-17Botafogo2-0CoritibaSerie A
2022-05-29Coritiba1-0BotafogoSerie A
2021-08-28Coritiba0-1BotafogoSerie B
2021-06-06Botafogo2-0CoritibaSerie B
2020-12-20Coritiba1-2BotafogoSerie A
2020-09-02Botafogo0-0CoritibaSerie A
2017-09-24Coritiba2-3BotafogoSerie A

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match