Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc preview
In the fixture between Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc, the 1X2 probabilities show Botafogo at 65% to win, while Chapecoense-sc sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. Botafogo has an expected goals figure of 1.90, compared to Chapecoense-sc's 0.98, indicating a significant offensive advantage.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Botafogo's last six matches show 2 draws and 2 losses, while Chapecoense-sc has 4 losses in their last six games. Both teams to score stands at 54%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 55%, suggesting that while Botafogo is favored, surprises can happen if Chapecoense-sc finds their scoring touch.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc: model vs market
| Source | Botafogo | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 65% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | -9% | +4% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.98.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Botafogo, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.75 | +0.25 |
| Chapecoense-sc | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Botafogo / Chapecoense-sc)
- 0.80 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Botafogo / Chapecoense-sc)
- 1.17 / 1.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botafogo goals. Columns: Chapecoense-sc goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 65% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 15% | 6.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botafogo or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Chapecoense-sc) | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo win by 2+ | 35% | 2.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc recent form
Botafogo
1W 3D 2L
Chapecoense-sc
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botafogo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-10
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.87
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo at home only, Chapecoense-sc away only.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Botafogo 2 · draws 0 · Chapecoense-sc 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Chapecoense-sc | 2-0 | Botafogo | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-21 | Botafogo | 1-0 | Chapecoense-sc | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-18 | Chapecoense-sc | 1-4 | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Mirassol vs Internacional 2026-10-16
- Atletico-MG v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-17
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-10-18
- Fluminense vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Gremio v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-18
- Bahia vs Flamengo 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Botafogo, previous: Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction
- Chapecoense-sc, previous: Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense analysis