Gremio vs Cruzeiro preview
In the upcoming match between Gremio and Cruzeiro, the 1X2 probabilities show Gremio at 33%, a draw at 27%, and Cruzeiro at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance according to our model. Gremio's recent form is concerning, with 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Cruzeiro has 2 wins and 4 losses in the same period.
The expected goals are 1.49 for Gremio and 1.25 for Cruzeiro, suggesting a competitive match. The model indicates a 52% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. However, Gremio's struggles could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro: model vs market
| Source | Gremio | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +11% | +1% | -12% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cruzeiro, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 3.05 | 3.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Cruzeiro | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gremio and Cruzeiro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Gremio / Cruzeiro)
- 0.85 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Gremio / Cruzeiro)
- 0.92 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gremio goals. Columns: Cruzeiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gremio vs Cruzeiro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Cruzeiro | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gremio or draw) | 60% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruzeiro) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win by 2+ | 14% | 7.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gremio and Cruzeiro recent form
Gremio
0W 3D 3L
Cruzeiro
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gremio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-7
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.87
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gremio at home only, Cruzeiro away only.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gremio 0 · draws 0 · Cruzeiro 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Cruzeiro | 2-0 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-05 | Gremio | 0-1 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-13 | Cruzeiro | 4-1 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico-MG v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-17
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-10-18
- Fluminense vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Bahia vs Flamengo 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Corinthians vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Gremio, previous: Gremio – Internacional, 2026-10-11
- Cruzeiro, previous: RB Bragantino – Cruzeiro, 2026-10-13