RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro: model vs market
| Source | RB Bragantino | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (RB Bragantino / Cruzeiro)
- 0.78 / 1.20
- Defence rating (RB Bragantino / Cruzeiro)
- 1.01 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RB Bragantino goals. Columns: Cruzeiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RB Bragantino | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Cruzeiro | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RB Bragantino or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruzeiro) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win by 2+ | 17% | 5.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro recent form
RB Bragantino
1W 1D 4L
Cruzeiro
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RB Bragantino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-5
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-6
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: RB Bragantino at home only, Cruzeiro away only.
RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: RB Bragantino 1 · draws 0 · Cruzeiro 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Cruzeiro | 2-1 | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-21 | Cruzeiro | 2-1 | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-20 | RB Bragantino | 1-0 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
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