Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro

· Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques, Braganza· Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was RB Bragantino to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RB BragantinoDrawCruzeiro

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRB BragantinoDrawCruzeiro
Model29%30%41%
Market44%27%29%
Published41%27%32%
Edge-4%+1%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on RB Bragantino, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.15Now 2.12 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
RB Bragantino2.152.12-0.02
Draw3.503.56+0.06
Cruzeiro3.253.25+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07RB Bragantino
1.31Cruzeiro
Total expected goals
2.38
Attack rating (RB Bragantino / Cruzeiro)
0.75 / 1.25
Defence rating (RB Bragantino / Cruzeiro)
0.99 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.6% 10.9% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 1 8.6% 14.3% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 2 5.3% 6.9% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 3 1.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: RB Bragantino goals. Columns: Cruzeiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2RB Bragantino41%2.46
Draw27%3.64
Cruzeiro32%3.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.36
Under 2.558%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (RB Bragantino or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Cruzeiro)59%1.68
Handicap -1RB Bragantino win by 2+12%8.55
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro recent form

RB Bragantino 0W 2D 4L
Cruzeiro 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

RB Bragantino at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-5
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
1.07
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cruzeiro away

Record (W-D-L)
6-2-6
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: RB Bragantino at home only, Cruzeiro away only.

Injuries & availability

RB Bragantino absences

  • Davi Gomes knee injury
  • H. Mosquera inactive
  • Rodriguinho inactive

Cruzeiro absences

  • Gabriel Pec broken leg
  • L. Romero injury
  • L. Sinisterra muscle injury
  • N. Villarreal ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

RB Bragantino lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 18 Tiago Volpi
  2. 29 Juninho Capixaba
  3. 16 Gustavo Marques
  4. 2 Guzmán Rodríguez
  5. 52 Ryan Tavares
  6. 7 Eric Ramires
  7. 5 Fabinho
  8. 11 Fernando
  9. 47 Wallace
  10. 21 Lucas Barbosa
  11. 8 Eduardo Sasha

Bench: Cleiton, Eduardo Santos, Gabriel, I. Pitta, Vanderlan, I. Sosa, Vinicius, Bruninho, Gustavinho, A. Sant'Anna, J. Herrera, Matheus Fernandes

Cruzeiro lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 81 Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
  2. 27 G. Rojas
  3. 34 Jonathan
  4. 43 João Marcelo
  5. 12 William
  6. 8 Gerson
  7. 5 Zé Lucas
  8. 99 K. Arroyo
  9. 10 Matheus Pereira
  10. 38 Felipe Morais
  11. 19 Kaio Jorge

Bench: Cássio, Kauã Moraes, M. Viña, Matheus Henrique, Bruno Rodrigues, Marquinhos, Fabrício Bruno, Lucas Silva, Wesley Gassova, L. Villalba, Kenji, L. Rodríguez

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: RB Bragantino 1 · draws 3 · Cruzeiro 6.

RB BragantinoDrawsCruzeiro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Cruzeiro2-1RB BragantinoBrazil Serie A
2025-09-21Cruzeiro2-1RB BragantinoBrazil Serie A
2025-04-20RB Bragantino1-0CruzeiroBrazil Serie A
2025-03-22RB Bragantino1-1CruzeiroFriendlies Clubs
2024-12-01RB Bragantino1-1CruzeiroSerie A
2024-07-13Cruzeiro2-1RB BragantinoSerie A
2023-09-03Cruzeiro0-0RB BragantinoSerie A
2023-04-29RB Bragantino0-3CruzeiroSerie A
2023-03-29RB Bragantino2-3CruzeiroFriendlies Clubs
2023-03-29Cruzeiro3-2RB BragantinoFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match