Corinthians vs Vitoria preview
In the Brazil Serie A fixture between Corinthians and Vitoria, the 1X2 probabilities show Corinthians at 51%, while Vitoria sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 8%. Both teams to score is at 55%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides, although Corinthians has struggled recently with 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 matches.
Corinthians has an expected goals figure of 1.29, while Vitoria's is slightly higher at 1.34. This suggests that Vitoria may have the edge in creating chances. However, Corinthians has a better head-to-head record with 1 win and 2 draws in their last 3 encounters against Vitoria. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Corinthians vs Vitoria: model vs market
| Source | Corinthians | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 37% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | -22% | +3% | +19% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Corinthians vs Vitoria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Corinthians, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.72 | -0.03 |
| Vitoria | 5.36 | 5.36 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Corinthians and Vitoria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Corinthians / Vitoria)
- 0.74 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Corinthians / Vitoria)
- 1.32 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Corinthians vs Vitoria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Corinthians goals. Columns: Vitoria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Corinthians vs Vitoria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Corinthians vs Vitoria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 51% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Vitoria | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Corinthians or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Vitoria) | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win by 2+ | 16% | 6.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Corinthians and Vitoria recent form
Corinthians
0W 1D 5L
Vitoria
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Corinthians at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-10
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 2.13
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Corinthians at home only, Vitoria away only.
Corinthians vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Corinthians 1 · draws 2 · Vitoria 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Vitoria | 0-0 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-25 | Vitoria | 0-1 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-06-01 | Corinthians | 0-0 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico-MG v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-17
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-10-18
- Fluminense vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Gremio v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-18
- Bahia vs Flamengo 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Corinthians, previous: Palmeiras v Corinthians analysis
- Vitoria, previous: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: odds and pick