Bahia vs Flamengo preview
In the upcoming match between Bahia and Flamengo, the 1X2 probabilities show Flamengo at 43%, while Bahia sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, which occurs 10% of the time. Bahia's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Flamengo has also performed well with 5 wins in their last 6.
The model suggests a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. This means that while there’s a reasonable expectation for goals, the match could also end with fewer than 3 goals or without both teams scoring. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Bahia vs Flamengo: model vs market
| Source | Bahia | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Edge | +5% | +5% | -10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bahia vs Flamengo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 2.80 | 3.32 | +0.52 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.65 | +0.15 |
| Flamengo | 2.38 | 2.05 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bahia and Flamengo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Bahia / Flamengo)
- 1.10 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Bahia / Flamengo)
- 0.89 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bahia vs Flamengo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bahia goals. Columns: Flamengo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bahia vs Flamengo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bahia vs Flamengo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 30% | 3.38 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Flamengo | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bahia or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Flamengo) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win by 2+ | 16% | 6.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bahia and Flamengo recent form
Bahia
4W 0D 2L
Flamengo
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bahia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-2
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bahia at home only, Flamengo away only.
Bahia vs Flamengo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bahia 1 · draws 0 · Flamengo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Flamengo | 2-0 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-05 | Bahia | 1-0 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-11 | Flamengo | 1-0 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico-MG v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-17
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-10-18
- Fluminense vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Gremio v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Corinthians vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Bahia, previous: Bahia – Mirassol, 2026-10-11
- Flamengo, previous: Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo prediction
- Flamengo, next: Flamengo – Estudiantes L.P., 2026-10-23