Updated

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Semi-finals

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo

· Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata· Referee Juan Gabriel Benitez

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Flamengo to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Estudiantes L.P.DrawFlamengo

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEstudiantes L.P.DrawFlamengo
Model36%31%34%
Market25%32%44%
Published28%31%41%
Edge+3%0%-2%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.25Now 2.17 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Estudiantes L.P.3.403.77+0.38
Draw3.002.99-0.01
Flamengo2.252.17-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Estudiantes L.P.
1.15Flamengo
Total expected goals
2.35
Attack rating (Estudiantes L.P. / Flamengo)
1.19 / 1.42
Defence rating (Estudiantes L.P. / Flamengo)
0.89 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 9.6% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9% 1 10.1% 14.5% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2 6.8% 7.9% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 3 2.7% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Estudiantes L.P. goals. Columns: Flamengo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Estudiantes L.P.28%3.61
Draw31%3.20
Flamengo41%2.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Estudiantes L.P. or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)69%1.46
X2 (draw or Flamengo)72%1.38
Handicap -1Flamengo win by 2+14%6.97
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo recent form

Estudiantes L.P. 3W 1D 2L
Flamengo 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estudiantes L.P. at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-0
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Flamengo away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Estudiantes L.P. at home only, Flamengo away only.

Expected lineups

Estudiantes L.P. lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 F. Muslera
  2. 13 G. Benedetti
  3. 26 R. Funes Mori
  4. 4 S. Núñez
  5. 40 E. Mancuso
  6. 22 A. Castro
  7. 21 Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
  8. 17 J. Burgos
  9. 10 T. Palacios
  10. 31 B. Gallego
  11. 9 G. Carrillo

Bench: F. Iacovich, J. Sosa, S. Arzamendia, E. Cetré, A. Gaich, L. Alario, B. Aguirre, F. Pérez Escudero, J. Correa, M. Monsalve, B. Kociubinski

Flamengo lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Rossi
  2. 26 Alex Sandro
  3. 4 Léo Pereira
  4. 3 Léo Ortiz
  5. 22 Emerson Royal
  6. 8 Saúl
  7. 5 E. Pulgar
  8. 16 Samuel Lino
  9. 11 Lucas Paquetá
  10. 15 J. Carrascal
  11. 27 Bruno Henrique

Bench: G. Varela, Luiz Araújo, Pedro, A. Valencia, N. de la Cruz, G. Plata, J. Freitas, Andrew, Vitão, Dyogo, João Victor Cunha, Johnny Góes

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Estudiantes L.P. 1 · draws 1 · Flamengo 2.

Estudiantes L.P.DrawsFlamengo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-21Flamengo1-0Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
2026-04-30Estudiantes L.P.1-1FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
2025-09-26Estudiantes L.P.1-0FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
2025-09-19Flamengo2-1Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Before and after this match