Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Estudiantes L.P.	Draw	Flamengo
Model	33%	32%	35%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	32%	35%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Estudiantes L.P.

1.09Flamengo

Total expected goals: 2.14
Attack rating (Estudiantes L.P. / Flamengo): 1.11 / 1.51
Defence rating (Estudiantes L.P. / Flamengo): 0.79 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.1% 11.5% 7.0% 2.5% 0.9% 1 11.0% 14.8% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 6.5% 7.1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Estudiantes L.P. goals. Columns: Flamengo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Estudiantes L.P.	33%	3.04
	Draw	32%	3.09
	Flamengo	35%	2.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.77
	Under 2.5	64%	1.56
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.25
	No	56%	1.80
Double chance	1X (Estudiantes L.P. or draw)	65%	1.53
	12 (either side)	68%	1.48
	X2 (draw or Flamengo)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	Flamengo win by 2+	14%	6.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo recent form

Estudiantes L.P. 3W 1D 2L

Flamengo 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estudiantes L.P. at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-3-0
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.20
Goals against / match: 0.80
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Flamengo away

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Estudiantes L.P. at home only, Flamengo away only.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Estudiantes L.P. 1 · draws 1 · Flamengo 2.

25% 25% 50%

Estudiantes L.P.DrawsFlamengo

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-21	Flamengo	1-0	Estudiantes L.P.	CONMEBOL Libertadores
2026-04-30	Estudiantes L.P.	1-1	Flamengo	CONMEBOL Libertadores
2025-09-26	Estudiantes L.P.	1-0	Flamengo	CONMEBOL Libertadores
2025-09-19	Flamengo	2-1	Estudiantes L.P.	CONMEBOL Libertadores

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