Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama preview
In the upcoming fixture between Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama, the 1X2 probabilities show Sao Paulo at 40%, while Vasco DA Gama stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Sao Paulo, with a 10% chance according to our model. However, the expected goals indicate Sao Paulo at 0.80 and Vasco DA Gama at 1.17, suggesting that the match could be tighter than the probabilities imply.
Sao Paulo's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses, while Vasco DA Gama is performing better with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. The model indicates a 32% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance for both teams to score. These factors could lead to unexpected outcomes, especially given the head-to-head record of 1 win for Sao Paulo and 2 for Vasco DA Gama in their last 3 encounters.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama: model vs market
| Source | Sao Paulo | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 34% | 44% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | -21% | +6% | +15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sao Paulo, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 2.46 | 2.12 | -0.33 |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.38 | +0.15 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 2.81 | 3.31 | +0.49 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.90
- Attack rating (Sao Paulo / Vasco DA Gama)
- 0.84 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Sao Paulo / Vasco DA Gama)
- 0.93 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sao Paulo goals. Columns: Vasco DA Gama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.68 |
| No | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sao Paulo or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Vasco DA Gama) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win by 2+ | 7% | 13.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama recent form
Sao Paulo
2W 1D 3L
Vasco DA Gama
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sao Paulo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-7
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sao Paulo at home only, Vasco DA Gama away only.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sao Paulo 1 · draws 0 · Vasco DA Gama 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Vasco DA Gama | 2-1 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-02 | Vasco DA Gama | 0-2 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-06-13 | Sao Paulo | 1-3 | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Mirassol vs Internacional 2026-10-16
- Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico-MG v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-17
- Fluminense vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Gremio v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-18
- Bahia vs Flamengo 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Sao Paulo, previous: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: odds and pick
- Vasco DA Gama, previous: Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama analysis
- Vasco DA Gama, next: Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors: odds and pick