Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors preview
Vasco DA Gama faces Boca Juniors with a 47% chance of winning compared to Boca's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which accounts for 12% of predictions. Vasco's expected goals stand at 1.44, while Boca Juniors has 0.96.
Both teams to score is at 48%, and Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 43%. This suggests a close match, but if Boca Juniors can improve their scoring, the outcome could differ. Vasco's recent form shows they have been solid, while Boca also has a strong record. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors: model vs market
| Source | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | +13% | +1% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vasco DA Gama below the model: +13.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.77, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Vasco DA Gama / Boca Juniors)
- 1.26 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Vasco DA Gama / Boca Juniors)
- 0.62 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vasco DA Gama goals. Columns: Boca Juniors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Boca Juniors | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vasco DA Gama or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Boca Juniors) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors recent form
Vasco DA Gama
5W 1D 0L
Boca Juniors
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vasco DA Gama at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boca Juniors away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vasco DA Gama at home only, Boca Juniors away only.
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Vasco DA Gama 1 · draws 0 · Boca Juniors 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Boca Juniors | 0-1 | Vasco DA Gama | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama — match page 2026-10-14
- Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Vasco DA Gama, previous: Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama analysis
- Boca Juniors, previous: Boca Juniors – Talleres Cordoba, 2026-10-17