Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central preview
Sarmiento Junin faces Barracas Central with a 43% chance of winning compared to Barracas Central's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Sarmiento's expected goals of 1.61 against Barracas' 1.19. The model suggests a 53% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
Sarmiento's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Barracas has 2 wins in the same period. Despite Sarmiento's favorable head-to-head record of 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 encounters, a draw is still a possibility with a 31% probability. This could impact the expected outcome if Barracas Central performs better than anticipated.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central: model vs market
| Source | Sarmiento Junin | Draw | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 32% | 27% |
| Published | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| Edge | +4% | -5% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sarmiento Junin below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sarmiento Junin, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.95 | 2.95 | +0.00 |
| Barracas Central | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Sarmiento Junin / Barracas Central)
- 1.44 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Sarmiento Junin / Barracas Central)
- 1.40 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sarmiento Junin goals. Columns: Barracas Central goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarmiento Junin | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Barracas Central | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sarmiento Junin or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Barracas Central) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarmiento Junin win by 2+ | 24% | 4.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central recent form
Sarmiento Junin
3W 1D 2L
Barracas Central
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sarmiento Junin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Barracas Central away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-3
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sarmiento Junin at home only, Barracas Central away only.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sarmiento Junin 2 · draws 1 · Barracas Central 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Barracas Central | 1-2 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-09-20 | Barracas Central | 0-1 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-03-09 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-1 | Barracas Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central 2026-10-17
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page 2026-10-18
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo — match page 2026-10-18
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Aldosivi 2026-10-18
- Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate 2026-10-18
- Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Sarmiento Junin, previous: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate prediction
- Barracas Central, previous: Barracas Central – Huracan, 2026-10-10