Atletico Torque vs Danubio preview
Atletico Torque faces Danubio with a 50% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which suggests that Atletico Torque may edge this match. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 39%, while both teams to score is at 41%. Atletico Torque's expected goals are 1.55 compared to Danubio's 0.71, reflecting a stronger attacking potential. Recent form shows Atletico Torque with two wins in their last six matches, while Danubio has only one win in the same period.
Atletico Torque vs Danubio: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Torque | Draw | Danubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | +8% | 0% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico Torque below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Torque vs Danubio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Torque, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque | 1.95 | 1.90 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Danubio | 3.50 | 3.80 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Torque and Danubio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Atletico Torque / Danubio)
- 1.24 / 0.63
- Defence rating (Atletico Torque / Danubio)
- 1.04 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Torque vs Danubio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Torque goals. Columns: Danubio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Torque vs Danubio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Torque vs Danubio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Danubio | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Torque or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Danubio) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Torque win by 2+ | 31% | 3.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Torque and Danubio recent form
Atletico Torque
2W 1D 3L
Danubio
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Torque at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-6
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-8
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 4 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 30 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Torque at home only, Danubio away only.
Atletico Torque vs Danubio head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Atletico Torque 1 · draws 2 · Danubio 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Atletico Torque | 1-0 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-04 | Danubio | 1-1 | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-06-07 | Danubio | 3-2 | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-03-30 | Atletico Torque | 1-1 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
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