Wanderers vs Boston River: model vs market
| Source | Wanderers | Draw | Boston River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | +17% | -2% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Wanderers below the model: +16.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Wanderers vs Boston River odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wanderers, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wanderers | 2.23 | 2.20 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.25 | -0.08 |
| Boston River | 2.98 | 2.92 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wanderers and Boston River expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Wanderers / Boston River)
- 1.20 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Wanderers / Boston River)
- 1.02 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wanderers vs Boston River score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wanderers goals. Columns: Boston River goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wanderers vs Boston River goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wanderers vs Boston River
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wanderers | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Boston River | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wanderers or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Boston River) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wanderers win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wanderers and Boston River recent form
Wanderers
3W 2D 1L
Boston River
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-2
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boston River away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-10
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 30 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wanderers at home only, Boston River away only.
Wanderers vs Boston River head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Wanderers 0 · draws 0 · Boston River 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Boston River | 4-1 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-05-02 | Boston River | 1-0 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
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